Mike's Race Analysis May 13, 2007

Race #1

1st - #3 J D's Carson Copy | 2nd - #4 Star Nova | 3rd - #5 Don Juan's Dream

COMMENTARY : The #3 J D'S CARSON COPY looks to be one of the more likely winners on the day as he returns at the same level where he was an unlucky runner-up. On opening weekend he was fanned five wide around the first turn then raced three wide on the final bend so it was a huge effort for him to finish second and he's definitely the one to beat in this heat. The #4 STAR NOVA didn't show anything in his lone start last year although that was for no price and he's down for $15,000 this afternoon and sporting a decent worktab and will get Lasix for the first time so I think he'll improve a lot. The #5 DON JUAN'S DREAM had some issues with the starting gate and left there 8 lengths behind the field and to see him rescue third money was quite impressive, he'll be a major threat if he leaves the latch with the field.

Race #2

1st - #2 Cherokee Freedom | 2nd - #7 Royal Tiara | 3rd - #6 Winning Waves

COMMENTARY : The #2 CHEROKEE FREEDOM is facing a much easier test to start off her '07 campaign and judging by her worktab she looks to be ready to fire a good one. The #7 ROYAL TIARA also has some nice morning preps but will have to overcome her outside post and try and get into a decent spot early if she's going to beat my top pick. The #6 WINNING WAVES had a productive season in her initial year of racing and with a big break in the weights she might surprise some people today.

Race #3

1st - #4 You'rejustlikeme | 2nd - #3 Destiny's Home | 3rd - #5 Freeliena

COMMENTARY : The #4 YOU'REJUSTLIKEME beat all four of her rivals two weeks ago quite comfortably and there really doesn't look like there's any reason to go against her. WIRE-TO-WIRE !! The #3 DESTINY'S HOME turned in a sharp work since her first run and might be one that can turn the tables on the #4 YOU'REJUSTLIKEME but she will need to be more aggressive early and get the lead if she's going to pull off the minor upset. The #5 FREELIENA had a solid effort in her '07 debut and looks like the best of the rest.

Race #4

1st - #7 Macho Mo | 2nd - #4 Wolf Running Wild | 3rd - #1 Entry

COMMENTARY : The #7 MACHO MO should be a lot fitter today with a race under his belt after training pretty conservatively for his first start, he'll get the addition of Lasix as well as a little easier company so I expect a much improved run from him today. The #4 WOLF RUNNING WILD got bottled in behind runners and finished a disappointing fifth but if he can get back to his form of last fall then he has good shot with this group. Both halves of the #1 ENTRY didn't show speed in their initial starts this year but with better posts this afternoon I think they'll be in better position and give them a good chance of getting into the top three.

Race #5

1st - #4 Espresso Gal | 2nd - #3 Perfect Peggy | 3rd - #7 Portrait

COMMENTARY : The #4 ESPRESSO GAL started off the season last year in some tough optional claimers and ran well but it just wasn't good enough against that calibre so she really never did get on track and seemed to lack confidence even when she was devalued later in the year. She seems to be going well in the a.m.and she might be able to find her way to the top early in this race that doesn't feature much early speed so I think this is an excellent time to back her. The #3 PERFECT PEGGY seems to always be on the board (1 for 29 lifetime) but just can't get that elusive second victory, she's not a win-type horse for me but one that you certainly need in the exotics. The same goes for the #7 PORTRAIT who is one of many off-the-pace runners in this heat.

Race #6

1st - #3 Dylan's Prospect | 2nd - #2 Ronaldino | 3rd - #1 White Rapids

COMMENTARY : The #3 DYLAN'S PROSPECT had been training well enough to earn a start in the $55,000 CTHS Sales Stake on opening weekend and he gave a decent account of himself, he returns to maiden company today and I think he'll be very tough to beat. The #2 RONALDINO was sent hard (in the three path) to stay with the leaders through a very demanding pace so it wasn't surprise to him very tired in the lane. He'll race on Lasix, has better draw so I expect big things from this guy today. The #1 WHITE RAPIDS improved with each start last year and actually performed very well in the $134,000 Ascot Graduation, he's in with maidens and has a brilliant six panel work in 1:13.60 so he looks to be ready but it really doesn't look like sprinting is going to be his game although I still think he get into the TRIACTA.

Race #7

1st - #8 Complicit Swiss | 2nd - #1 Goldrush Victory | 3rd - #9 Rip Cord

COMMENTARY : The #8 COMPLICIT SWISS has won two races (lost one via disqualification) already this year and with particular $8,000 race coming up pretty soft I think with his good positional speed he can win another. The #1 GOLDRUSH VICTORY just missed at this level a couple of weeks ago and with the rail will be very tough again today. The #9 RIP CORD has a series of smart trials and seems to run well for apprentice Jason Pang so if he can overcome the outside draw then he has a shot at a decent price.

Race #8

1st - #5 Grayross Gal | 2nd - #4 Sindi's Success | 3rd - #7 Savin' Dimes

COMMENTARY : The #5 GRAYROSS GAL had to be used a little too hard to get up near the lead and tired after racing three wide throughout most of the race. She has a better post for her style today and I think she'll rebound with big effort. The #4 SINDI'S SUCCESS is a solid mare that never seems to run a bad race and she's right back in at the price where she won two weeks ago. The #7 SAVIN' DIMES was a little too close to the contested pace which isn't really her style (a little too sharp off the layoff perhaps) I expect her to settle much farther off the pace and come with a late rush, she's better than that last race so give her another chance.

Race #9

1st - #6 No Sox Fox | 2nd - #5 Lethal Grande | 3rd - #4 Golden Pursuit

COMMENTARY : The #6 NO SOX FOX blew the start in his comebacker and at this level no horse can afford to give anything away which is why he ended up a no-threat fourth. He's better than these and I think that if he breaks with the field he'll win the money. The #5 LETHAL GRANDE really had every shot to win last time as he had the fitness edge and the lead on a track that he loves so I was a little disappointed in his performance. He looks to be the controlling speed which is a bonus for him so he should be dangerous again today but he has to run better to win. The #4 GOLDEN PURSUIT was a closing second in his first race of the young season and with an extra half-furlong to work the front runners better not be stopping or he'll nail them.

Race #10

1st - #4 Stormin Blackboots | 2nd - #2 Max Day | 3rd - #10 Siam Prince

COMMENTARY : The #4 STORMIN BLACKBOOTS showed speed in his '07 debut and finished up a decent fourth at the $15,000 tag, he's down for $5,000 this afternoon and looks to have drawn a pretty easy spot so if he repeats his first race of the season he should win. The #2 MAX DAY has speed and is nicely drawn in gate two, his efforts in his final two races last year definitely put him in contention with this group and his works have been okay but they don't need to be overly quick at the level. The #10 SIAM PRINCE wasn't disgraced in his only start last year going three and half furlongs, he's had two half-mile works to go along with four five-eighths drills so he should be fit enough, he'll just need some luck from his outside gate.

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