Race Analysis for August 1

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: MR. APPLE CIDER has a strong record at the distance and he was much the best when he came from off the pace to win his latest after being forced to steady going down the backstretch. He gets off of the rail today and should be tough to beat with clear sailing. VICTIM OF LOVE has won 3 of 5 going this far and he almost held on to beat the top pick on July 16. He was coming off of a 3-month layoff so he could make it the whole way in his second start back. SANTANA WINDS cruised to an easy win at this distance the last time he ran here and he is coming off of decent effort going 5 1/2 furlongs in the bushes July 3. He is reunited with the leading rider who was aboard for his win and should be considered for the exotics.

RACE TWO: ROSES FOR BEN and QUATCHI, who are both cutting their price in half, have taken turns beating each other for second in their last two starts and the pace of each race probably had a lot to do with how they finished. With his decent tactical speed ROSES FOR BEN could have the advantage in a race where they might not be going all that fast up front. QUATCHI got the best of him two back when they set pretty fast fractions but they aren't going to be going nearly as fast here and he could be left with too much to do. It's still a toss-up and either one could win it. DIABLO PASS has been right there in his last three starts at this level and distance and at the very least should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE THREE: WIND STORM drops to a new low and should be tough to handle if she runs her usual race. She has compiled an impressive 8-1-4 record from 13 starts at the distance and the time away shouldn't be too big of a concern as she has won coming off longer layoffs in the past. RANDOM HIGHS showed surprising speed in her win in a similar race July 3 and looks like the main threat. There is other speed signed on here, but she doesn't need the lead and she should able to stalk what figures to be an honest pace. CRY CRY CRY should appreciate the move back to a sprint after a game win for $25,000 and she was claimed back by the same connections who won two races from two starts with her. B. C. CAT just missed to RANDOM HIGHS last time and should be considered for the exotics.

RACE FOUR: FOXY LIKE A CAT had more than one reason to come up a little short after making the lead at the top of the stretch in her latest. She was coming into the race off of one six-furlong sprint and then she went extremely wide around the first turn and at least 3-wide on the second turn. She figures to move forward in her second straight route and she also moves to the rail where she will save a lot more ground. LADY SASHA is stepping up after winning a non-winners of two but she posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure and the horse that finished third came back to win her next start. She appears to be heading in the right direction and her sharp 5-furlong move on July 25 is another positive sign. CRAFTY SISTERINLAW ran an improved race in her latest and could continue to move forward as a second time Lasix user. BEULAH LAND ran a good race to finish second two back and after losing her rider going down the backstretch she ended up finishing in front in the same race most of these ran in.

RACE FIVE: SASSY'S TREASURE is facing winners and stretching out for the first time but she posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure for her win July 16 and she has the highest Tomlinson Figure for the distance in the field. She is the first foal out of a multiple stakes winning mare that ran compiled a 9-1-1 record from 11 starts and she had a win and a second from two route tries. RECALLED will appreciate the much easier company she's facing today. The winner of her latest came back to romp for $25K last weekend. Recalled won the first time she went this distance in her previous start and she gets in with a feathery 107 pounds. AGAMEONE has done her best work from off the pace so it was a bit surprising to see her forcing the issue in her latest. There should be an honest pace and if she is allowed to settle early she could make some noise late.

RACE SIX: STAR'S TWILIGHT has shown improvement in each of his starts and he picked things up in his latest work, presumably with blinkers. He’ll be running with them for the first time here and it wouldn't be surprising to see him being a little more aggressive during the early stages of the race. All seven of his siblings are winners including $220K multiple stakes winner Five Point Star. DOUBLIN THE GOLD deserved to be favored off of his solid effort at his level in his latest and he has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post. BOSCO'S QWIK was pretty quick in his 4-furlong move in :47.20 seconds July 18 and attracts the leading rider for his debut. He's by a good debut sire and over the past 5-years his trainer has a 9 percent strike rate with horses making their first start in a maiden claiming race. SPANISH STRYKER could improve enough in his second start to work his way into the superfecta.

RACE SEVEN: LONG JOURNEY had been away for over 6-months when he came from well off the pace to win a cheaper race July 18 and could either bounce of move forward in his second start back. He has plenty of back class and the shape of the race should work in his favor. His trainer, who is having a strong meet, has a 22 percent strike rate with horses coming back from long layoffs and just a 9 percent rate when they make their second start off of a layoff, however. Despite rushing up and forcing a quick pace while going three-wide around the second turn as the heavy chalk, CHEROKEE TEAR still almost won a similar race in his last start. He has other speed to deal with here and if he can sit off of it he could make amends. HAPPY GO LUCKY couldn't keep up to much tougher horses when he tried $8,000 starters in his latest and he'll appreciate the much easier company. He finished a close third at this level in his previous start and he should save a lot of ground from his inside post.

RACE EIGHT: SARATOGA INTENTION posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure when she won a maiden race going this distance two back and then tired after forcing an honest pace when she stretched out for the first time. She should be set up perfectly for the move back to a sprint and it won't hurt that the leading rider accepts the call. She will have to avoid a duel with LA MALINCHE who set fast fractions and held on well to finish third in a much improved effort in her latest. The drop to this level probably had a lot to do with La Malinche’s improved performance and she figures to move forward with a solid race behind her. VINTAGE VINO got the worst of the draw but if the top two hook up early and Hamel can avoid going too wide around the first turn she could easily get up in time.