Race Analysis for Sunday, August 15

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: WHIPSTITCH just about dwelt and still only got beat by just over a couple of lengths in a similar race Aug. 2. With a better start he could be tough to handle. He has certainly had his fair share of chances to get past this condition but considering how well he ran in his latest we're willing to give him another chance. CANUCK BUCK could be ready for a peak effort in his third start back from a long layoff and he should get a nice trip behind what should be an honest pace. P. S. BRAVO sharpened up for this with a good effort in an unabbreviated sprint and could be dangerous if he gets away on his own. A very sharp ROYAL RAGS could have something to say about that, however.

RACE TWO: SASSY CASEY has been improving lately and she has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure for her win over $5,000 maidens just over a week ago. Her trainer has very good stats when she brings them back in a week or less - 22 percent over the past 5 years - and we aren't going to quibble over one day. She's worth a look at what should be a decent price in her first try with winners. THESEFOOLISHTHINGS ran a big race to finish second in her first try going around three turns and could take a big step forward with the experience behind her. She is also a lightly raced 3-year-old filly and she could have some upside potential. ELUSIVE INTENTIONS bit off more than she could chew when she tried a tough group of starter horses in her latest and she will certainly appreciate the much easier company. She finished third the last time she ran at this level and the horse that finished second came back to score an easy win in her next start in a sprint for this condition. She would look a lot better if there was more speed for her to close into, however.

RACE THREE: DIVA BALLERINA chased a very tough Finality Philly when she tried winners for the first time and should appreciate the drop into a much easier spot - Philly came back to win her next two races, including a $50,000 optional sprint last weekend. Diva Ballerina sheds some weight and the only concern is that she might want more distance. She has some tactical speed and that and could have the edge over CHILECITO, who appears to be the main threat. CHILECITO also wants more distance, but both have shown enough sprinting and the drop in class is pretty substantial considering who beat them the last time they ran. GRASS ROOTS is the only horse in the field with more than a single win and she closed strongly to win her latest. FINE AS FEATHERS just broke her maiden but there isn't a lot of proven speed in the field and she could be dangerous if she gets away on her own.

RACE FOUR: WOOMBROOM EXPRESS got fried in a duel with Sense of Humor in the B.C. Cup Sprint but they shouldn't be going nearly as fast here. He also drew the rail and if he breaks alertly - and the Sprint didn't take too much out of him - he should be hard to get past. SLEW'S BOY took advantage of the duel in the Sprint to finish second and there is a chance another battle between the Woombroom and BEARROCK N ROLL will develop early here. BEARROCK N ROLL doesn't have quite as much speed, however, and it probably makes sense for Perez to have him sit just off of the top pick and hope he comes back to the field. He rode Sense of Humor in the Sprint so he should know what will happen if he does try to go with Woombroom early.

RACE FIVE: VINTAGE VINO moves a lot closer to the rail after a good effort in a similar race despite breaking from the 11-hole Aug. 1. She lost a bit of ground going around the first turn and then made a strong late move along the rail on the second one. She couldn't make up the ground she lost to KONA DAYBREAK who had a perfect trip while skimming the rail most of the way, however. THAT'S HOW WE ROLL just missed the last time she ran in a sprint for this condition and is coming off two solid races, one long and the other versus pricier. KONA DAYBREAK couldn't have had a better trip in her win at a big price in her latest. Once again she drew an inside post and the only thing we can guarantee is that she won't be nearly as big a price. LA NORIA got off a couple of steps slow in the same race and might be worth a look at what should be a decent price.

RACE SIX: MISS MONY BAGGZ has worked strongly leading up to this and could be coming up to a big race. She appears to have the best speed in the field and could take them a long way if she clears early. Her trainer has heated up lately and it might be worth taking a stab at what should be a decent price. GRACEFUL CAPTAIN figures to be favored off of her much improved effort in her latest which came on the heels of a sharp work so she just might be starting to figure things out. BETUWISHUHADME has worked well enough and she found a good spot to make her debut. Her dam won three races going long so she might want more distance. TOUCH N GO has had her fair share of chances but she is coming off of a solid effort in her latest and she is an obvious contender with this group.

RACE SEVEN: SUPER STEVE runs well fresh and makes his first start since being claimed by a trainer that over the past five years has a 21 percent strike rate when he runs them back the first time. Steve also had an excuse when he lost as the chalk in his last start and if you toss the race he's been a pretty reliable performer. BREEZE'S STORM has been right there in his last two starts behind Rallying Cry who won and finished second in his next two starts at this level. He's been off for over a month but he had a sharp half-mile move July 31 and over the past five years his trainer is a solid 16 percent with horses coming back in this time period. GOLD TICKET looked sharp in his win over cheaper July 23 and he has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post. JUMP PASS may have tipped his hand with a bullet four-furlong move in :45.40 seconds Aug. 10 and he won the last time he ran for this price.

RACE EIGHT: SMARTY FAWCETT was bumped around and squeezed leaving the gate in the B.C. Cup Nursery and still only got beat by less than three lengths. He showed decent speed when he finished second in a maiden special weight race in his previous start and he should be tough to handle if he leaves there running with Pacheco taking the call at 108 pounds. His trainer also does a very good work with her babies. TIMEFORACOLDONE led for all but the last jump when she dropped to this level for his latest and once again figures to be involved from start to finish. MATCHABULL worked a strong five-furlongs on Aug. 6 and is out of a mare that won seven races and had a first and second in her only starts at two. The only 2-year-old her trainer has started finished second by a neck in his debut last year and half of her first time starters have finished in the money. NASCOPIE is by a sire that is 20 percent with first time starting 2-year-olds and he has worked well enough for a trainer that has won a lot of races with his babies over his long career.