Race Analysis for July 3

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: P. S. BRAVO set honest fractions before tiring in his initial start this year and drops to a new low here. It would have been nice to see him come back a little sooner but his half-mile move on June 30 was solid and if he comes close to running his usual race he should be tough to handle. WHIPSTITCH chased and couldn't keep up to an easy winner in his latest but he did hold on well to finish a clear second and he should get a similar trip here. PROSPERA has been working decently leading up to his first start since he was moved up to first in a $12,500 maiden race last October. Lasix is being added and over the past five years his trainer has won with 14 percent of the horses he has brought back from this type of layoff. He could be worth a look at what should be a decent price.

RACE TWO: TOO MUCH DIRT ran an improved race when he stretched out to this distance in his latest and could be ready for a big effort in his second two-turn sprint. The leading rider is attracted and it hard not to notice the strong trainer-jockey stats showing when he rides for MacPherson. TAI SHAN should be fit enough off of three solid five-furlong works and could be ready for a big effort in his debut. He is out of a stakes winning mare that also ran for Forster and her first foal to race has won a couple of sprints. TIMEFORACOLDONE tired in his first try going around two turns and could take them a long way if none of the first time starters leave there running.

RACE THREE: SEE EYE TO EYE looked pretty good winning going this distance on June 5 and then couldn't catch a tough one in her latest sprint last Sunday. She is coming back pretty quickly but Ellickson has had four of the last five he's brought back in a week or less finish in the money and one of them won. She certainly won't mind the move to a distance she has compiled a respectable 2-1-1 record from 4 starts. SARGENT SALLY made a late move into a fast pace in her first start this year and she figures to move forward with a race under her belt. She could also have another honest pace to run at with CRY CRY CRY stretching out for the first time. DASHING DAISY has been a solid second in her last two and adds blinkers for the first time in her 15-race career. She has good tactical speed and should get a nice trip just off of CRY CRY CRY.

RACE FOUR: NINELEVENTURBO ran a strong race to finish second in his first start of the year and won't mind the move to a distance he has won four races. It also looks like he should be able to set or stalk a moderate pace. VINTNER just missed in a similar race and similar to the top pick he should be forwardly placed. He also gets in light with Franco taking the call and with a sharp break he should be able to stick around for a long time. DEVIL'S ATTIRE scored an impressive win in his first route and might be good enough to stand the hike in class. They probably won't be going as fast up front so there is a good chance he'll be left with a bit too much to do. OLAXSA keeps picking up slices and as usual should be considered for the exotics.

RACE FIVE: MOSEL RIVER seems to be headed in the right direction and could be ready for a peak effort in his third straight route. He set an honest pace in his latest and still held on well to just miss while posting a career best Beyer Speed Figure. If he continues to move forward he could take them the whole way. AQUISTADORE figures to move forward in his second route and just his third start overall. He didn't have much of a chance when he was mired in the 12-hole last time and he ran a decent enough race despite losing quite a bit of ground on the first turn. GRAND HUNTER has been making up a lot of ground in his sprints and could appreciate the added yardage. He is also dropping to a new low and he certainly won't mind the easier company.

RACE SIX: STORM ABOVE takes a substantial drop for his first try going a middle distance and his stakes winning mom was 2 for 6 going long so he should have the pedigree to handle the distance. He easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and the only concern is that his trainer hasn't won with the last 26 horses he has stretched out for the first time. Half were in the money, though. SHINY DICE made a strong move to win his latest and along with the top pick are the only horses with more than a single win. His 405 Tomlinson Figure for the distance is by far the best in the field and he should get a nice trip from just off of what could be a lively pace. Some of the speed could be provided by BOURNE A PRINCE who looked so impressive winning his debut and then faded badly after forcing a fast pace in his second sprint. His trainer has solid stats in all the relevant categories and he could take them a long way if he clears early.

RACE SEVEN: SMOKIN DANIELLE is about as honest as they come and is coming off of another solid race where she finished a very close second at this level and distance. She likes to be near the lead and depending on how B. C. CAT runs, she could either be the one they have to catch or she'll get a nice trip from a stalking position. Either way, she should be right there. RESTLESS LADY took a small step forward in the same race and could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. She was a pretty tough horse here last year and from the looks of her interim work on June 24 she could be ready to start rolling again. DAYMAKER drops to a new low and she will have to be dealt with late. It just depends on how fast they will be going up front but at the very least she should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE EIGHT: AIMING FOR GLORY takes a substantial drop after a dull effort where he beat one in a $25,000 maiden race June 19. It was just his second start and he had been off for almost two months so it is nice to see him return this quickly. He also gets in light with Franco taking the call and it wouldn't be surprising to see him get involved right from the start. WOODEN GAGE dropped to this level for his latest and his connections almost got the desired result as he checked in second. He has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in his second and third starts and could pick up the pieces if an all out duel develops. DOUBLIN THE GOLD forced the issue early and although he was no match for the runaway winner, he finished over 4-lengths clear of the third horse in a much improved effort in his latest.