Mike's Race Analysis June 17, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Complicit Swiss | 2nd - #5 Dirt Devil Drew | 3rd - #2 Fisherman's Friend
COMMENTARY : The #6 COMPLICIT SWISS is having a great season so far with three straight victories (lost one via DQ) and with him back in at his recent winning level and with no real other speed in this dash he should rack up another win. The #5 DIRT DEVIL DREW has had a couple of rough trips from poor posts but the rider that knows him best is back in the saddle so I expect a big improvement in him this afternoon; better post today as well. The #2 FISHERMAN'S FRIEND just finished winning at this same level and was second to the #6 COMPLICIT SWISS first time out this year so he's definitely another key presence in this race.
Race #2
1st - #4 Annikat | 2nd - #3 Alfaarimiss | 3rd - #6 Danjuria
COMMENTARY : The #4 ANNIKAT was caught up in a bit of a pace duel on a track that really didn't favour speed; she's down slightly in class and should get a perfect trip in behind the leaders today so I think she'll rebound with a top performance. The #3 ALFAARIMISS has been sharp this spring since racing on Lasix and is another that could get a nice trip tracking the pace-setters. The #6 DANJURIA has some speed and a decent work tab for her return to the races after a five month break.
Race #3
1st - #5 Windy Breeze | 2nd - #4 Not Just Dreaming | 3rd - #7 Regal Dream
COMMENTARY : The #5 WINDY BREEZE tried much tougher optional $35,000 mares in her latest and hooked into Regal Pusher on the head end so it wasn't surprising to see her finish where she did; she has a far easier assignment today and could find herself loose on the lead. The #4 NOT JUST DREAMING has been banging heads with open $20,000 and $25,000 mares and actually faring alright so with this drop into a restricted non-three for $20,000 she should be a huge factor in this one. The #7 REGAL DREAM got a perfect rail run to defeat non-two $20,000 mares in a good time; her task is tougher today especially from an outside draw but one shouldn't dismiss just because of the post.
Race #4
1st - #7 Wings Of An Eagle | 2nd - #2 Newton John | 3rd - #5 Almost Par
COMMENTARY : The #7 WINGS OF AN EAGLE looked like his former self in winning three weeks ago in an excellent time of 1:17.80 (couple of ticks faster than Newton John who also ran on the same day) and I think he's good enough to beat some of his opponents that have been racing with pricier of late. The #2 NEWTON JOHN is dropping down in price after a game score in a restricted $20,000 event; he has the rail and good speed so he'll obviously be dangerous as will the #5 ALMOST PAR who is getting out of the tough open $15,000 category in favour of this easier restricted non-three spot.
Race #5
1st - #8 Coco Diablo | 2nd - #7 Alpine Secret | 3rd - #6 Hold On Sugar
COMMENTARY : The #8 COCO DIABLO has turned in two solid efforts at this same level and with this race coming up far easier than the last two did she shouldn't get beat this afternoon. The #7 ALPINE SECRET has speed, leading rider and a big drop in class going for her so we should see a big improvement today. The #6 HOLD ON SUGAR got a little tired after chasing the speed in her latest but the third start after a lengthy layoff is usually the best one. SITTING ON A GOOD EFFORT !!
Race #6
1st - #6 Alittlebitextra | 2nd - #7 Sindi's Success | 3rd - #4 Avalanche Bay
COMMENTARY : The #6 ALITTLEBITEXTRA has been quite good in her sprints so far this year so with her stretching out to her preferred distance I'll give her top marks. The #7 SINDI'S SUCCESS is one of the most consistent horses on the grounds, she can run short or long - fast track or slop it doesn't seem to matter to her so anytime I see her in the entries I give her a ton of respect. The #4 AVALANCHE BAY ran into a bit of trouble in her last start and did well to rescue fourth money; she likes this longer trip so I'll definitely throw her in the exotics.
Race #7
1st - #4 Diplomatic Honor | 2nd - #9 Alpha Danjur | 3rd - #3 Kingsvale
COMMENTARY : I was really impressed with the grit shown by the #4 DIPLOMATIC HONOR who lasted until the stretch then understandably got very tired late. He put away two other speed horses while carving a demanding pace then was hooked by Ronaldino (running in the $125,000 Alberta Derby on Saturday) at the far turn and I thought he did well to stay on until the eighth-pole. Today things look far easier for pace so I think he'll run big at a nice price. The #9 ALPHA DANJUR is the obvious horse in this spot after blowing the start and rallying to get second in an excellent time; post hurts but he's sharp right now. The #3 KINGSVALE has worked in impressive style for his return after a one year layoff.
Race #8
1st - #6 French Roast | 2nd - #4 Golden Pursuit | 3rd - #2 Joyride
COMMENTARY : The #6 FRENCH ROAST cruised to a nice score against easier in his return to the races two weeks ago and as long as the quick turnaround doesn't bother him then he should be tough right back. The #4 GOLDEN PURSUIT was stuck in behind a slow pace last time and just needs the race to set up a bit better for him and he'll be right there and the same goes for the #2 JOYRIDE who was eliminated early and had no shot once he lost position behind the slow fractions that were being set by the eventual winner Lethal Grande. GOOD CHANCE WITH A NICE TRIP !!
Race #9
1st - #6 B R Remark | 2nd - #5 Alexandersrun | 3rd - #4 Brass Bard
COMMENTARY : The #6 B R REMARK has crushed his opponents in his two sprints so far this year and with him showing last season that he can handle this longer trip I have to side with him in this very competitive allowance event. The #5 ALEXANDERSRUN was a good third in the $54,000 Longden behind Forceful Intention and Spaghetti Mouse; he should enjoy this easier spot as he looks for his first win since 2005. The #4 BRASS BARD is an honest little sort that surprised some when he defeated Forceful Intention in the Autumn Leaves allowance last fall; he had a nice sprint tightener and is now set to go long, he would appreciate an 'off track'.
Race #10
1st - #3 Nettleship | 2nd - #1 Nate's Star | 3rd - #7 Montana To Rice
COMMENTARY : The #3 NETTLESHIP is getting a far easier task today, he has a sharp work tab since his last race and could be the speed of this group so I'll give him a shot. The #1 NATE'S STAR would've won last time with a clean trip but he was checked sharply on the final bend and held up just enough to cause him to lose in a photo; if he can get lucky with the trip he's very 'live' as well. The #7 MONTANA TO RICE showed some talent in his debut closing up to get fourth after a slow beginning; surprisingly he was claimed (not too often does a 27-1 shot get claimed) and the new connections have made a couple of changes adding blinkers and Lasix; he has a sharp work and should be given respect in this soft heat.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT HASTINGS !!!