Mike's Race Analysis June 24, 2007
Race #1
1st - #3 Candy King | 2nd - #5 Alert N Wise | 3rd - #1 Mudchute
COMMENTARY : I thought that the #3 CANDY KING ran reasonably well (decent third place run with similar) in his first start if the year and with a pace duel looking likely he should be the one that benefits. The #5 ALERT N WISE is dropping out of the tough maiden allowance ranks and if he can avoid an early battle with the #1 MUDCHUTE then he's 'live' in this spot as well. The #1 MUDCHUTE will probably take most of the action and I really think he's had every chance to win his first two races this season so to me he's a vulnerable favourite.
Race #2
1st - #2 And All That Jazz | 2nd - #7 Xalibou | 3rd - #4 Aragorn
COMMENTARY : The #2 AND ALL THAT JAZZ chased a fast pace on a sloppy track and tired late to finish fourth; he has a better post draw and should get the early lead to himself so I really like his chances of staying the entire trip in front. The #7 XALIBOU has turned in back-to-back solid efforts and is definitely the one to beat; he should be in a good spot early which will make a huge threat today. The #4 ARAGORN ran evenly in his debut and will obviously need to improve to win today but he has a strong pedigree (half brother to Spaghetti Mouse) and good connections so it would be no surprise to see him run a whole lot better this afternoon.
Race #3
1st - #4 Cool Vic | 2nd - #3 Chilling Kat | 3rd - #1 Ranglin Road
COMMENTARY : The #4 COOL VIC has had a couple of rough trips in his last two which were both against much tougher company; he's in a better spot today and should love the mile and a sixteenth trip so I like him to get the money. The #3 CHILLING KAT improved a lot when offered for $8,000 maidens as he won quite comfortably while racing out in the three path the entire trip. He's a big long striding gelding that should be better at this longer trip so I think he's the main threat to my top pick. The #1 RANGLIN ROAD was in a pretty tough spot against older horses last time so being in with three year olds will definitely help and the distance change could also move him forward as well.
Race #4
1st - #3 Sultry Eyes | 2nd - #4 Built This City | 3rd - #7 Ebonys Silver Star
COMMENTARY : There looks to be enough speed to set up the late charge of the #3 SULTRY EYES who has been a bridesmaid in her first two starts this year but I like her to break through with a win today. The #4 BUILT THIS CITY was much better when the blinkers were removed last time out and she cruised to easy score versus easier; she'll need to be every bit as good today as it appears that she'll get some challenges for the early lead. The #7 EBONYS SILVER STAR was an even third at this level two weeks ago and should get a more favourable pace scenario for her off-the-pace style so I like her for a TRIACTA placing.
Race #5
1st - #4 Principe's Passion | 2nd - #6 Mighty Sweet | 3rd - #9 Right To Race
COMMENTARY : The #4 PRINCIPE'S PASSION has turned in a couple of mid-pack performances against better maidens and I think a repeat of either of those races gets her a big cheque this afternoon; she gets Lasix and blinkers but I think more importantly a much easier group to run with. The #6 MIGHTY SWEET is one of many exiting the slowest race (1:22.40) of the young season and I'll give her another shot only because she flipped in the gate and unseated the rider prior to the start and I'll gamble that she's been schooled since and will be better today. The #9 RIGHT TO RACE perhaps didn't care for the sloppy conditions because she didn't run anywhere near as good as she did first time out; I like the fact that leading rider stays on board which tells me that she deserves one more shot.
Race #6
1st - #3 Beautiful Breeze | 2nd - #2 Loving Laur | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #3 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE raced closer to the outside fence than she did to the rail and obviously lost any chance of winning, she has a great post today and will be a pace factor and should be more like the filly we saw just miss two starts back. The #2 LOVING LAUR battled the entire way on the head end last time before yielding late; that was her first race six weeks so with better spacing in between runs this time she's going to be a major threat. The #1 CALL HER KELLY tried winners last time in effort to run long and ended up a no-threat fifth on a tough track; no long races are going for winners or maidens so she'll give the sprinting game another try and if she gets the needed pace battle up front she could be a factor late.
Race #7
1st - #4 Mountain Musician | 2nd - #8 Market Bell | 3rd - #9 Muiredach
COMMENTARY : The #4 MOUNTAIN MUSICIAN was held up in traffic on the final turn and was flying late when he was clear but had to settle for third; he was very good in his only try going long last year in stakes company so I really like him on the stretch out today. The #8 MARKET BELL was full of run late and just missed in an easier maiden claimer but gave me every indication that the extra ground he gets today will only help. The #9 MUIREDACH is bred to love this trip and I think we'll see him improve a lot today.
Race #8
1st - #6 Above The Clouds | 2nd - #4 Earl's Diamond | 3rd - #7 Agro
COMMENTARY : The #6 ABOVE THE CLOUDS was claimed for $20,000 out of his most recent race which was an unlucky fourth and resurfaces for $15,000 this afternoon; he's been off for five weeks but this is the easiest group he's faced in a long time and I'll gamble that he's in good enough shape to win today. The #4 EARL'S DIAMOND has worked well for his return and with this rider/trainer combo clicking at 31% it's tough to leave out anything that they send out. The #7 AGRO had a wide trip last time when checking in third against similar company but with this race coming up a bit tougher he'll need to get a perfect trip to win although a TRIACTA placing is more likely.
Race #9
1st - #11 Lord Vic | 2nd - #4 Trouble Shooter | 3rd - #3 Great Prince
COMMENTARY : The #11 LORD VIC will need some luck from his outside post but he's a horse that is bred (La Belle Fleur and Suva) for distance and with the combination of the longer trip and easier company I think he'll be very tough today. The same goes for the #4 TROUBLE SHOOTER who was well beaten sprinting with better but is another that will appreciate the extra ground as he showed last year. The #3 GREAT PRINCE was dropped down to this same level five weeks ago and was claimed; he will be a pace factor at this longer trip for the leading trainer and rider.
Race #10
1st - #1 Chile's Quest | 2nd - #4 T. J. Hennessy | 3rd - #6 Commodore Craig
COMMENTARY : The #1 CHILE'S QUEST was recently second for $35,000 in a good time two weeks ago so he's definitely the one to beat down at this $25,000 tag. The #4 T.J. HENNESSY is getting down to a level where he's going to be dangerous; he has speed and if he can avoid a battle with #5 CELT then he has a good chance. The #6 COMMODORE CRAIG is back down at the claim level where he won easily but with this race coming up more like a $35,000 race I've left him in the third spot.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GOOD DAY !!!!