Mike's Race Analysis June 9, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Cabron | 2nd - #7 Go Strider | 3rd - #3 Ashesinthewind
COMMENTARY : The #5 CABRON has worked smartly for his debut; he hails from a top barn and is by a win-early sire. The #7 GO STRIDER ran well in his debut three weeks ago and with the experience edge in his corner he might have the best chance of defeating my top pick. The #3 ASHESINTHEWIND sports some nice morning trials and this barn has been red-hot this spring.
Race #2
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #6 Deadly Zone | 3rd - #3 Loving Laur
COMMENTARY : The #1 MY ENTITLEMENT closed up nicely in her career debut as she got second money despite a very slow pace being set in front of her; she's come back to work quickly and appears to have a strong entrymate in the #1a CLASSICAL who has trained well for her first start. The #6 DEADLY ZONE has been stakes-placed on three different occasions yet has managed to miss the winner's circle twice when dropping back in with maidens. She lost a ton of ground in her first start this year and off of that effort in the logical one to win today. The #3 LOVING LAUR continues to scorch the course in the a.m. (nothing new for her) but hasn't been able to reproduce her morning ability in the afternoon although she's lightly raced and that could change today.
Race #3
1st - #1 Three Express | 2nd - #4 Fraserview | 3rd - #6 Raymer Road
COMMENTARY : The #1 THREE EXPRESS looks to be the controlling speed in a race that really doesn't have a strong 'closer' in it so I think he's a strong wire-to-wire candidate. The #4 FRASERVIEW bested my top pick last time but the post positions are switched and 'Express' has a race in him now which is why I think the tables will be turned this afternoon. The #6 RAYMER ROAD might be the one that benefits from a contested pace; he's raced with better as a three year old and has trained well for his '07 opener so he could surprise some people today.
Race #4
1st - #5 Torquemada | 2nd - #6 Cagey Fox | 3rd - #4 Bold Stephan
COMMENTARY : The #5 TORQUEMADA was a solid third sprinting at the $20,000 non-two level so with him down for $8,000 and stretching out to his winning distance he shouldn't get beat against this soft group. The #6 CAGEY FOX was much better going long in the fall last year so I'll forgive him for his sub-par sprint effort two weeks ago and gamble that he'll be better at this longer trip. The #4 BOLD STEPHAN just broke his maiden recently and looks like one that'll enjoy then extra ground.
Race #5
1st - #9 How Bout Jose | 2nd - #7 Agro | 3rd - #4 Sunrise Serenade
COMMENTARY : The #9 HOW BOUT JOSE has been a solid performer since coming to Hastings and I'll lean his way in what appears to be a very contentious event; he has speed to get into a favourable position from his outside draw and I'm sure will give another good account of himself this afternoon. The #7 AGRO is winless over the past two seasons but is probably going to a contested pace set in front of him and with the forecast calling for rain this wet-track specialist might get his favoured track as well. The #4 SUNRISE SERENADE had a troubled journey in his first start of the season and if he can get some luck today he'll be right there at the end.
Race #6
1st - #5 For Jake's Sake | 2nd - #10 Trouble Shooter | 3rd - #4 Just A Country Boy
COMMENTARY : The #5 FOR JAKE'S SAKE missed the start then rushed up four deep on the backstretch before tiring in the lane which was to be expected after expanding all of that energy early in the race. A repeat of the effort with a better beginning and this guy will win the money. The #10 TROUBLE SHOOTER ran very well at this level a couple of weeks back but today has drawn a tough assignment from post ten although I still expect him to be a big factor. The #4 JUST A COUNTRY BOY was roughed up pretty good last time (carried out four and five wide throughout much of the trip) and with him moving inside he should get a better chance today.
Race #7
1st - #7 Sharp Chevron | 2nd - #1 Fire Boss | 3rd - #5 Newton's Rule
COMMENTARY : The #7 SHARP CHEVRON has been good in his last two starts and that was enough for me to pick him in this competitive heat. The #1 FIRE BOSS was a bit better in blinkers and if he can get lucky with the trip then he could win. The #5 NEWTON'S RULE has worked very nicely for his return and isn't really hooking a very tough field so he has a shot as well.
Race #8
1st - #4 Frosty Finish | 2nd - #7 Patriotic | 3rd - #1 Cool Vic
COMMENTARY : The #4 FROSTY FINISH is cutting his price in half after being a pace casualty in a tough optional $50,000 claimer that had some promising runners in the lineup. This is a much easier test and he could be the lone speed which would obviously help his cause. The #7 PATRIOTIC was a little flat in his first start finishing a no-threat sixth but he bled that day and will race on Lasix and Gutierrez stays with him so perhaps better is in store today. The #1 COOL VIC had no shot in that tough allowance race as he was four wide throughout the entire trip; he gets a great post today and easier opponents as well so we should see a better result.
Race #9
1st - #3 Right To Race | 2nd - #4 Mighty Sweet | 3rd - #1 Rozzi
COMMENTARY : The #3 RIGHT TO RACE showed some real grit to gain fifth money after being assigned the ten hole so with leading rider in the tack and a better post she looks great in this spot. The #4 MIGHTY SWEET had every shot to win last time although I still like her to be in the exotics. The #1 ROZZI comes out of a slow heat but it was an improved effort and she's one of the few in this dash that are on the improve so she can't be left out of the mix.
Race #10
1st - #3 Restless Lady | 2nd - #2 Pretty Maid | 3rd - #4 Napa
COMMENTARY : The #3 RESTLESS LADY has been excellent since going in blinkers and is now stakes-placed after her runner-up effort in the $55,000 Emerald Downs Handicap three weeks ago; she'll get Lasix for the first time this afternoon and try a new distance but the way she relaxes so easily I don't think the longer trip will be a problem for her. The #2 PRETTY MAID was very impressive in her '07 debut and will try and go long off of a six week layoff (not by design-she's been in the entry box many times but the races haven't filled) she looks like a gifted filly that might be able to win despite the time off. The #4 NAPA was the upset winner of the Emerald Downs Handicap and now try and go long; her pedigree is strong for sprinting but some of the Feu d'Enfer's have gone long. TOUGH CALL !!
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