Mike's Race Analysis May 5, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Faustine | 2nd - #4 Minutes Apart | 3rd - #1 P S Kin
COMMENTARY : I thought that the #6 FAUSTINE ran quite well last week considering she was in with tough open $8,000 company but today she's in with conditional non-three mares and will take the blinkers off so I'm looking for a big effort from her. The #4 MINUTES APART appears to be the speed of the race and this rider knows her well so she's top threat as well. The #1 P S KIN has to shake the 'bridesmaid' tag as she was second or third an unbelievable nine times, she has the rail and should get a nice trip which will give every shot to win.
Race #2
1st - #4 Mocha Time | 2nd - #3 Annikat | 3rd - #6 Africameetsindia
COMMENTARY : The #4 MOCHA TIME has a good start under her belt in Calgary and even though there's a fair amount of speed in this dash I think she'll probably get into a battle for the lead and with no real strong 'closer' in here I think she can last all the way at this reduced level. The #3 ANNIKAT has trained well for barn that is off to a great start and will race on Lasix for the first time this afternoon, could be the best off-the-pace runner of the group. The #6 AFRICAMEETSINDIA dropped into this bracket for her final start of '06 and was a decent third behind a rapidly improving filly called Restless Lady. Her works are average but off of her form of last year she must be respected today.
Race #3
1st - #1 E Commerce | 2nd - #4 Fancy One | 3rd - #9 Red's Miss
COMMENTARY : The #1 E COMMERCE has by far the fastest of the morning trials and showed some talent last year in her two trips to the post, she's nicely drawn on the inside and is facing a soft looking group so she should be tough. The #4 FANCY ONE flashed good speed in many of her races last season and with this race really not having much in it for speed she could get things very comfy on the front end. The #9 RED'S MISS has a good final work (1:01.60) for this caliber, the daughter of Captain Collins hasn't drawn too tough of a spot to debut so she could make her presence felt.
Race #4
1st - #1 Alpine Secret | 2nd - #2 Ms. Alberta | 3rd - #4 Basket Of Dreams
COMMENTARY : The #1 ALPINE SECRET has speed and the rail to go along an excellent win percentage so she's definitely the one to beat in her Hastings debut. The #2 MS. ALBERTA is solid at this level when she's at her best, she isn't the most consistent in the group but does have the talent to pop up and win today. The #4 BASKET OF DREAMS has been a gritty mare throughout her career and changed from a need-the-lead type in her younger years to a versatile gal that can win from off the pace, the works are a little slow with the exception of her last half-mile drill (48.40) which is why I've left her in the third spot.
Race #5
1st - #7 Stately Endeavour | 2nd - #4 No Need To Hide | 3rd - #6 Belle Of Rainier
COMMENTARY : The #7 STATELY ENDEAVOUR has been brilliant in her morning preps for today's race and with her likely to get the lead in this heat she's my pick to wire the field. The #4 NO NEED TO HIDE is down slightly in class after four tries at the allowance level last year, her works aren't as fast as my top pick but they are still very good and if the #7 STATELY ENDEAVOUR is a little weary in the lane then this gal will nail her. The #6 BELLE OF RAINIER named after the great Longacres mare of the same name from the early 1980's, she has a decent work tab and this barn has been known to get horses ready first time so beware of her today.
Race #6
1st - #3 Great Form | 2nd - #9 April Foolish | 3rd - #2 Winsome Witch
COMMENTARY : The #3 GREAT FORM closed out 2006 with two victories in quick times and judging by her works she looks to be every bit as good this year and I'll gamble that she gets the early lead and the jump on her main foe the #9 APRIL FOOLISH. The latter is an extremely game mare that doesn't run very often but she makes every start count, she's in at a level where she should win but with an outside draw and a full field things could get a little troublesome for her. CLASS OF THE FIELD BY FAR !!! The #2 WINSOME WITCH is yet another nice mare that knows how to win races, she was a solid $25,000 mare last year and I expect her to earn her share of money at this level once again in 2007.
Race #7
1st - #4 Judgment Day | 2nd - #1 Market Share | 3rd - #5 Roque River
COMMENTARY : The #4 JUDGMENT DAY was claimed for $50,000 at Hollywood last June and is finally getting to the races for his new connections this afternoon, his works are excellent and this looks to be a good spot for him with his two main opponents being three year olds. The #1 MARKET SHARE yet another private purchase by the Mallette/Brown combo, he has back-to-back runner-up efforts at Gulfstream on the turf and really hasn't been tested in his morning works here at Hastings so it's tough to say how he will fare but one thing is for certain he must be able to run because it isn't easy to hit the board in maiden races at Gulfstream. The #5 ROQUE RIVER was stakes-placed last year and has been going well in the a.m. so I put him in the third spot.
Race #8
1st - #1 Chile's Quest | 2nd - #4 The Visualiser | 3rd - #2 Halos' Storm
COMMENTARY : The #1 CHILE'S QUEST was very impressive in his lone sprint loss here at Hastings as he was hung out three wide on a fast pace and was still running on well at the end. He seems to be going well in preparation for this race and if he improves at four like their other two Derby purchases (Quiet Cash, True Metropolitan) he'll be tough to beat. The #4 THE VISUALISER had an awesome season in Vancouver in '06 which concluded with a close fifth in the B.C. Derby. He appears to be going nicely in the morning and with leading rider in the saddle this guy could take them wire-to-wire. The #2 HALO'S STORM makes his return to Vancouver after an unsuccessful run at Santa Anita although that start does give him the fitness edge which could loom large in the stretch of this six and a half furlong race.
Race #9
1st - #6 True Metropolitan | 2nd - #4 Spaghetti Mouse | 3rd - #1 My Guy
COMMENTARY : The #6 TRUE METROPOLITAN has been going beautifully in the a.m. and even though his best races are going long I think he'll be sharp enough to sprint against this group. His regular pilot Quincy Welch has been flown in to ride and will probably have him laying pretty close to the pace. CLASS OF THE FIELD !!!! The #4 SPAGHETTI MOUSE couldn't handle 'Metro' in the fall and he really isn't a great sprinter so he'll need to improve a lot to turn the tables but I still like him to beat the rest. The #1 MY GUY is the question mark runner, he has a race at Santa Anita against the top sprinters in California but how will he stack up with older horses here at Hastings?? He didn't beat much in Calgary before getting injured but obviously trained well enough this spring to earn a start in a Grade II race at Santa Anita so I'm not too sure how he'll do today
Race #10
1st - #1 Alpha Danjur | 2nd - #6 Italian Lover | 3rd - #8 Bengal
COMMENTARY : The #1 ALPHA DANJUR was unlucky not to have won a race last year and was a good second in his final start of '06 which was with winners, he's been blazing the course in the mornings and will be tough to overhaul today. The #6 ITALIAN LOVER has worked well for his debut as a four year old and hails from a strong barn. The #8 BENGAL is another first timer that has trained smartly for a good barn and leading rider jumps aboard.
Oaks Pick - Rags to Riches | Derby Pick - Dominican
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!