Mike's Race Analysis April 26, 2008
Race #1
1st - #5 Chianti Dancer | 2nd - #2 Stella Stella | 3rd - #4 Kalua On The Rocks
COMMENTARY : The #5 CHIANTI DANCER had an excellent '07 season finishing no worse than second in all four of her starts. She'll make his '08 debut on the Lasix program and should get a good trip sitting close to the pace which will give her every shot to win. The #2 STELLA STELLA has a big fitness edge on her rivals and recently took home her first victory with a comfortable score in Calgary; these fillies are better than the ones she faced three weeks back but she should still be very dangerous with her conditioning edge. The #4 KALUA ON THE ROCKS raced very well when she wasn't in stakes races; her works are solid so she deserves a look as well.
Race #2
1st - #2 Mama Kay | 2nd - #3 Trippi Bree | 3rd - #6 Fabulous Miss Otis
COMMENTARY : The #2 MAMA KAY was running quite well with better company last spring before going to the sidelines early in the year; she doesn't face an overly tough task and I like her to get into the winner's circle. The #3 TRIPPI BREE is a suspect favourite that hasn't raced in 17 months but if she fires anything close to those races that she showed in 2006 she'll win for fun. TOUGH CALL ??? The #6 FABULOUS MISS OTIS has early speed and an encouraging worktab; could be a surprise.
Race #3
1st - #2 Rich Debut | 2nd - #3 You Won't Like It | 3rd - #5 Ebonys Silver Star
COMMENTARY : The #2 RICH DEBUT was running with some sharp fillies last fall and hitting the fringes but today she finds a pretty soft spot and I think she'll take home the big prize. The # 3 YOU WON'T LIKE IT has been racing in Northern California and won a restricted non-three event at the $4,000 level which a plus but with the lack of pace in this short field she might not be able to get up and win this time. The #5 EBONYS SILVER STAR is probably a bit better going longer distances but she's sprinted reasonably well in the past and might like this soft spot; could be the pace setter ??
Race #4
1st - #2 Spirit Bear | 2nd - #1 Dylan's Prospect | 3rd - #5 Exploding
COMMENTARY : The #2 SPIRIT BEAR was working well last year (as shown by the betting action on him) but showed how tough it is to jump in mid-season against horses that are racing fit; he's in a good spot today and starting on an even playing field with his competition and I like him to take this field all the way on the head end. The #1 DYLAN'S PROSPECT has had many chances to get the job done which is why I steered away from picking him; he won't possess any value and looks like a vulnerable favourite at this shorter trip. The #5 EXPLODING had an abbreviated campaign last year while running with far better maidens; this barn is noted for having horses ready to roll so don't be surprised to see him play a big role in the outcome of this dash.
Race #5
1st - #6 Diamond Tree | 2nd - #5 Artic Star | 3rd - #2 Mr. Gobetween
COMMENTARY : The #6 DIAMOND TREE was well backed in both of his maiden races at Woodbine last fall but could only muster up a couple of fourth place finishes for his backers; he's trained well for a strong outfit and should like the easier competition that he'll face today. The #5 ARTIC STAR did everything wrong in his race at Stampede Park five weeks ago yet he still almost managed to win the money; he has a ton of talent but can't afford any miscues if he's to beat my top pick. The #2 MR. GOBETWEEN is a talented youngster that cost $120,000 as a yearling in 2006; he's been working very well and Alvarado has been aboard for all of his works so he knows him well; upset potential.
Race #6
1st - #2 Sinibix | 2nd - #7 Stylen Jaynee | 3rd - #4 Unspoken Thoughts
COMMENTARY : The connections thought enough of the #2 SINIBIX to send her to Toronto and when she was on her best behaviour she actually ran quite well; she's in an extremely easy spot today and should take home the money at a short price. The #7 STYLEN JAYNEE showed some talent last year and her worktab is deceivingly good so she looks like the one with the best shot to knock off the favourite. The #4 UNSPOKEN THOUGHTS was the busiest of the runners last year starting eight times; she has speed but also has stamina issues so she'll need to be much better to get any better than third money this afternoon.
Race #7
1st - #4 Answer The Call | 2nd - #3 Tango Mango | 3rd - #1 T.J. Hennessy
COMMENTARY: The #4 ANSWER THE CALL has been working very well for his return and is likely to get a hotly contested pace set in front of him which is why I think he has a big chance to pull off a minor upset. The #3 TANGO MANGO is a solid campaigner that knows how to win races and is a versatile type that doesn't need the lead to win which is a big plus. The #1 T.J. HENNESSY didn't have any success against the #3 TANGO MANGO last year although he was never far behind him; he'll need a perfect trip and does have the potential to beat this group.
Race #8
1st - #8 Dancer's Halo | 2nd - #2 Olympic Dawn | 3rd - #9 Angel Came Down
COMMENTARY : The #8 DANCER'S HALO got off to a late start last year and still performed very well; she gets to start off this season without having to play catch up in the fitness department and I think she'll be tough off of her solid worktab. The #2 OLYMPIC DAWN is way down in class after a good season which is a little suspicious; I'm going to try and beat her but if she fires her best she wins. The #9 ANGEL CAME DOWN was much better when racing on the Lasix program last year and if she can overcome her outside draw and get the early lead then she could be a big factor as well.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY DAY #1 AT HASTINGS RACECOURSE !!!