Mike's Race Analysis May 18, 2008
Race #1
1st - #3 By Magic | 2nd - #1 Tamarinda | 3rd - #4 Lady Raj
COMMENTARY : The #3 BY MAGIC is a solid older mare that showed last fall that she can sprint with some nice ones so with this race lacking speed and a solid favourite I like her to get a perfect trip sitting on a slow pace and run her stable mate #1 TAMARINDA down in the lane. The latter has another excellent chance to win as she'll get to dictate the tempo again which is a big key to her success. The #4 LADY RAJ will take a ton of money this afternoon but she's 1 for 24 lifetime for a reason and seems to lack that killer instinct when it counts so I've got to play against her even in this far easier dash.
Race #2
1st - #7 Kerrisdale Comet | 2nd - #2 Wonniteinvegas | 3rd - #4 Dragon Dancer
COMMENTARY : The #7 KERRISDALE COMET did everything right in his debut but just couldn't quite stay with the eventual winner in the late stages; he's up in price but this race really hasn't come up overly tough and with no real other speed in the lineup I think a repeat performance gets him the cash. The #2 WONNITEINVEGAS was a late scratch two weeks ago after flipping in the gate but has since come back to work smartly and looks to be the main danger to my top pick; gets his easiest test to date. The #4 DRAGON DANCER is nicely bred gelding (half brother to Metatron) that has been going well in the a.m. and has a strong chance to hit the board.
Race #3
1st - #1 Flame Of Liberty | 2nd - #3 Mama Kay | 3rd - #4 Goldy Fox
COMMENTARY : The #1 FLAME OF LIBERTY ran a big race in her '08 debut sitting right close to a very hot pace then running on well at the end, the pace should be far kinder to the speed fillies in here so she should have a big shot of winning. The #3 MAMA KAY really didn't take advantage of the hot pace scenario last time barely getting up for the runner-up spot but I still like her to get into the top three. The #4 GOLDY FOX showed some run last year finishing second on three occasions and she strikes me as one that'll improve in her second season of racing.
Race #4
1st - #6 Trialntribulation | 2nd - #8 D L Mint | 3rd - #4 Serengeti Sunrise
COMMENTARY : The #6 TRIALNTRIBULATION will undergo a couple of changes (adds blinkers and Lasix) after her fourth place finish two weeks ago against pricier competition and really won't need to improve all that much to beat this group. The #8 D L MINT was carried out (by another horse) on both turns and still managed to save the third spot which was quite impressive and if she can work out a good trip from her outside draw then she has a strong chance as well. The #4 SERENGETI SUNRISE had an encouraging start to the season checking in second against many of these so she also deserves respect in this competitive dash.
Race #5
1st - #2 Juvee Hall | 2nd - #3 Carolyn's Monarch | 3rd - #6 Baba Zula
COMMENTARY : The #2 JUVEE HALL ran very well last year in two tough maiden heats that actually ended up producing a stakes winner as well as a couple of stakes-placed fillies. This race isn't overly tough and with her seeming to be going well in her morning preps I like her and leading rider to team up for a big run today. The #3 CAROLYN'S MONARCH will likely be the fans choice off of her good effort a couple of weeks back; there isn't a lot of speed on paper in here so will be dangerous on head end. The #6 BABA ZULA took advantage of a three-ply speed duel set in front of her and rallied on the outside to narrowly get second money; she'll need to stay closer to the #3 CAROLYN'S MONARCH to win this time as there really doesn't look like there's anyone to chase that one.
Race #6
1st - #2 Cahill Casey | 2nd - #7 Romanced | 3rd - #3 Thendoftherainbow
COMMENTARY : The #2 CAHILL CASEY ran well fresh last year against similar types before tailing off and not being able to beat cheaper conditional mares; she's worked well and should get a good pace set in front of her and with this race coming up soft for the level I think she'll win. The #7 ROMANCED made a nice four wide move on the backstretch and pressed on in the stretch to get second money; she will also appreciate a contested pace and should be a big factor in the late going. The #3 THENDOFTHERAINBOW is a nice mare that turned in a sub-par (by her standards) effort last time out but I'll gamble that she'll rebound this afternoon.
Race #7
1st - #3 Savo Island | 2nd - #4 Tigerheat | 3rd - #7 Krazy Koffee
COMMENTARY : The #3 SAVO ISLAND was keeping company with some under-rated colts in Northern California this winter. He seems to have adjusted nicely to his new home and if he maintains his good form I think he'll take them all the way on the head end. The #4 TIGERHEAT ran very well in his Hastings debut as he challenged for the lead three wide and was still very game in the stretch which should set him up for a top performance today. The #7 KRAZY KOFFEE got a perfect trip in winning a tough allowance race but I don't think we've seen the best of him yet; he does some things wrong at the gate,on post parade and in paddock but his raw talent got him the win two weeks ago and with no real star in the lineup his talent could earn him a stakes victory.
Race #8
1st - #2 Diamond Quest | 2nd - #7 Saratoga Attire | 3rd - #3 El Perro Negro
COMMENTARY : The #2 DIAMOND QUEST has worked brilliantly (last work 35.40) for his debut and obviously is the one to beat. The #7 SARATOGA ATTIRE is another that comes from an excellent barn and has a smart work tab; beware. The #3 EL PERRO NEGRO hasn't been as fast as the top two in the a.m. but with leading rider in the tack this one might be faster than his works indicate.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GOOD DAY !!!