Mike's Race Analysis May 3, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #4 Dalton Green | 3rd - #5 Windy Day
COMMENTARY : The #1 ENTRY of #1 GREAT PRINCE and the #1a ABOVE THE CLOUDS look pretty solid in the 1:25 opener in this $15,000 claiming event. The #1 GREAT PRINCE was overmatched in his last couple of starts and is better at longer distances but I still think he'll be a big factor at this price, his entry mate #1a ABOVE THE CLOUDS is a consistent horse that is usually right on the money at this level and distance so they appear to be a tough tandem to beat. The #4 DALTON GREEN can sprint but seems a bit better going longer trips; his speed and positioning will be the big key for him. The #5 WINDY DAY is yet another that like the longer races and with the strong connections one shouldn't dismiss him too quickly.
Race #2
1st - #4 M L's Indian | 2nd - #1 Montello | 3rd - #3 Patriotic
COMMENTARY : The #4 M L'S INDIAN is taking a significant dip in class after a couple of dismals efforts to close out 2007; his works are a little conservative but at this price he should win even if he isn't at his best. The #1 MONTELLO looked good last fall as his picked off two wins in conditional races; he has the rail and good speed which will make him the main threat to my top pick although he loses Dave Wilson to another runner ?? The #3 PATRIOTIC tailed off noticeably after the claim last July but has worked very well for his return and has the potential to beat this group on his best day.
Race #3
1st - #3 Californiatruegrit | 2nd - #6 Cielo's Lad | 3rd - #4 Captain T W Bly
COMMENTARY : The #3 CALIFORNIATRUEGRIT looks much the best on paper in this dash as he's down to this non-three for $8,000 category after being very competitive with allowance types last summer. SI think he'll win at a short price but obviously something has gone wrong since we've last seen him so take a good look at him in the paddock. The #6 CIELO'S LAD turned in four good efforts last year and is one that has speed and should be in a good striking position. The #4 CAPTAIN T W BLY faces much easier today so he deserves respect but at this shorter distance I think he'll have trouble getting up and winning which is why I've left him in the third spot.
Race #4
1st - #1 Hex | 2nd - #6 Tribal Secret | 3rd - #3 Carolyn's Monarch
COMMENTARY : The #1 HEX has plenty of lengthy works under her belt and with her having good gate speed and the rail I think she'll prove very tough to catch. The #6 TRIBAL SECRET ran reasonably well in her two runs at this tag and if there's pace duel she looks like the one that may capitalize. The #3 CAROLYN'S MONARCH was training in the sunny climes of Southern California this winter before heading up to the Terry Jordan barn about a month ago; she's been going well and has lots of miles under her so she deserves respect as well in this wide open maiden event.
Race #5
1st - #2 Mama Kay | 2nd - #4 Fabulous Miss Otis | 3rd - #8 Sinibix
COMMENTARY : The #2 MAMA KAY ran into a tough Troy Taylor runner on opening day and had to settle for third after encountering some trouble at the top of the stretch. There appears to be plenty of early speed and as long as she gets a clean trip she should be tough to fend off in the late going. The #4 FABULOUS MISS OTIS chased the eventual winner (Trippi Bree) around the track and got a little tired late as she wound up fourth, she's coming back quickly in just seven days (which is a lot more difficult for a pace horse than a deep closer like Mama Kay) which is a concern but she looks to have the talent to beat these gals with the right trip. The #8 SINIBIX ran terribly in her '08 debut finishing a distant seventh as the 4/ 5 favourite but she'd been working far too well to run that poorly so I'll chalk the performance up to opening day jitters and hope that she runs better this afternoon.
Race #6
1st - #6 Bank Emblem | 2nd - #4 Mighty Cahill | 3rd - #2 Gold Ticket
COMMENTARY : The #6 BANK EMBLEM looked extremely good in his Canadian debut in Calgary four weeks back; he raced three and four wide throughout and still won for fun. This optional claimer hasn't come up very tough and with this race a little weak for speed he's likely to them wire-to-wire. The #4 MIGHTY CAHILL is a solid horse that seldom runs a bad one, he has enough gate speed to stay close to the pace which will give him the best chance to beat my top selection. The #2 GOLD TICKET had a good season last year racing with three year allowance company and is one that is likely to improve in his second year of racing so he rates a chance as well.
Race #7
1st - #4 True Metropolitan | 2nd - #2 B R Remark | 3rd - #3 Lord Nelson
COMMENTARY : The #4 TRUE METROPOLITAN was voted the best older horse in Canada for the second consecutive year and starts his quest for a third straight Sovereign this afternoon. This isn't his best distance but he's so versatile and gifted I don't think the six furlongs with bother him and I look for him to start the season off with a big victory. The #2 B R REMARK was the top sprinter in the province last year winning all four of his sprints at Hastings; he'll need to be awesome today because he's never faced a horse like 'True Met' before. The classy 11 year old #3 LORD NELSON will be racing in what seems like his tenth George Royal but I think its only half that many; he's worked extremely well and obviously his feet (which are his main problem) are in good shape as well right now so we'll see if the old-guy gives them a scare today.
Race #8
1st - #4 Remarkable Miss | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #7 Sophisticated Sis
COMMENTARY : The #4 REMARKABLE MISS had a good season last year and it could've been a lot better if she didn't hook into Sovereign Award winner Dancing Allstar three times in 2007. She's in a good spot today and has worked very swiftly for her return but she'll have to be at her best with a racing fit and talented Dave Forster duo in the lineup. The stronger half on the #1 Entry looks to be the #1 DREAM BABY DREAM who easily broke her maiden for $40,000 at Oaklawn Park; she seems to have handled the ship back to Hastings very well and will undoubtedly be the one they'll all have to catch. The #7 SOPHISTICATED SIS has worked in fine style and has plenty of early speed as well so she's another to watch out for in this six furlong allowance dash.
My Kentucky Derby pick is the #10 COLONEL JOHN
ENJOY THE KENTUCKY DERBY AND THANKS FOR JOINING US ON-LINE AND HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON AT HASTINGS !!!