Mike's Race Analysis May 4, 2008
Race #1
1st - #1 Puerto Montt | 2nd - #2 Mister La Rock | 3rd - #6 Mints Boy
COMMENTARY : The #1 PUERTO MONTT looks to be a standout on paper in this bottom level maiden claimer; he has speed, the rail, a decent work tab along with the big drop in class so he should make short work of this group and win at a very small price. The #2 MISTER LA ROCK might be able to put some pressure on my top pick early but he'll need to be a much improved if he's to win today. The #6 MINTS BOY seemed to be better going longer distances but with this bunch he should get into the TRIACTA even at this shorter trip.
Race #2
1st - #6 Makani | 2nd - #2 Tendra's Way | 3rd - #1 Thendoftherainbow
COMMENTARY : The #6 MAKANI hooked into some very nice fillies last fall after breaking her maiden and ran very well in both considering the tough trips; she's in with far easier opponents to start off this year and I like her a lot today. The #2 TENDRA'S WAY showed some promise in her three races last year and with that experience she should be a far better filly this season; I know she's a maiden but this isn't a very tough spot and she has solid works and the barn has had all of its starters ready to go early so it would be no surprise (to me) to see her challenge for the win. The #1 THENDOFTHERAINBOW is a very good sprinter that could be a big factor today if she can get a decent trip from the rail.
Race #3
1st - #1 Kings Fjord | 2nd - #4 Lennylooksgood | 3rd - #5 Afleet D
COMMENTARY : The #1 KINGS FJORD closed out 2007 with a good closing third place run against $25,000 claiming maidens so with him being aggressively spotted for $8,000 today he should be tough to beat. The #4 LENNYLOOKSGOOD has ‘looked good’ this spring in the a.m. as he makes his first start for a new barn and will also debut on the Lasix program. The #5 AFLEET D only had the one uninspiring run last year as a two year old but his works have been as good as any else and one must respect the connections so I’ve put him in the third spot.
Race #4
1st - #4 Yankee George | 2nd - #3 Saratoga Avenue | 3rd - #9 Regal Isolation
COMMENTARY : The #4 YANKEE GEORGE was an expensive claim in California last December that really hasn’t lit it up for his new connections as yet; he has a fitness edge and has been given a much easier test as well so I’ll side with him in a race where my top three picks seem tough to separate. The #3 SARATOGA AVENUE was very good in his only try around two turns and even though he didn’t do much in Alberta last month the race still served as a race to shake off the rust; I think he’ll be better today. The #9 REGAL ISOLATION showed excellent speed in his debut and hung in tough to get the runner-up spot; he has a tricky post but if he can clear then he’ll be tough to catch.
Race #5
1st - #2 Bold Knockout | 2nd - #4 Sporty Jones | 3rd - #5 Huffman
COMMENTARY : The #2 BOLD KNOCKOUT has good speed and a perfect draw to use that early gate speed and with this being the cheapest he’s ever been in he looks like a strong wire-to-wire threat. The #4 SPORTY JONES has been running in Bay Area this winter and finally broke his maiden in early March; there is a lot of speed in this dash and he appears to be the best off-the-pace runner in the group. The #5 HUFFMAN is another that broke his maiden down in Northern California but his form has deteriorated against racing with winners but he seems to taken well to our Hastings oval and could be a factor in the stretch.
Race #6
1st - #7 Enforcement | 2nd - #4 Skimming On Ice | 3rd - #2 Willie Katchem
COMMENTARY : The #7 ENFORCEMENT was keeping some pretty nice company in his first three starts of his career but he obviously has some physical problems that keep him from competing on a more consistent basis; his works are very good and if he repeats his last race in September today then he’ll win for fun. The #4 SKIMMING ON ICE is another newcomer that was purchased in California, he’s a three year old taking on older horses but judging by the morning activity he seems to like his new surroundings. The #2 WILLIE KATCHEM showed some promise last year and with the big break in the weights he could be a factor in the late going.
Race #7
1st - #7 Valdero | 2nd - #3 Right Honorable | 3rd - #6 Krazy Koffee
COMMENTARY : The #7 VALDERO couldn’t make the grade with the top three year olds leading up to the Kentucky Derby so he became expendable and was purchased privately by the Todd/Kinsella duo in hopes of winning an easier Derby out here on the west coast. He’s worked smartly for his Hastings debut and should have a class edge on this group. The #3 RIGHT HONORABLE has a strong pedigree and did improve noticeably in his final two starts last season; he’s a big strong gelding that should be even better now and has looked good in the a.m. so I’ll give him a big chance today. The #6 KRAZY KOFFEE is another that improved with each start last year and has worked as good as anyone on the grounds this spring.
Race #8
1st - #6 Serengeti Sunrise | 2nd - #2 Dare Ya Too | 3rd - #10 Mahaty Jo
COMMENTARY : The #6 SERENGETI SUNRISE ran with much tougher company last year so with her in a pretty soft spot and a good work schedule behind her I’m leaning to her to win it. The #2 DARE YA TOO has the rail and good speed which will make her dangerous although she still has to prove she can handle two turns. The #10 MAHATY JO has been training well for her ’08 debut and if she can work out a decent trip from the outside then she has a big chance as well.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT HASTINGS !!!