Race Analysis for August 13

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE:  A couple of nice looking 3-year-olds by Elusive Quality stand out in this $20,000 maiden race and we'll give the edge to QUALIFIED who ran a big race in his debut for $10K July 24. He figures to move forward in his second start and it is encouraging to see his connections double his price. The horse that finished third came back to win a $10K maiden race last weekend with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure. CONTREVE is clearly the horse to beat off of his second for this price July 31. He ran a little greenly and could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his career. He's a half-brother to Folklore, a Grade 1 winner that earned $975K so there is certainly pedigree potential here. VYING FOR GLORY didn't look comfortable being stuck on the rail in the same race CONTREVE exits but he made a nice move when he moved outside. Blinkers go back on and Perez keeps the faith.

RACE TWO:  HUFFMAN should appreciate the move back to a sprint and the drop in class. He has enough speed to clear early and he was a pretty tough horse when he was running at this level earlier in the year. BEAR MOST WANTED just missed to I WANNA GO FAST in a similar race and his tactical speed should give him the advantage, especially if HUFFMAN is not on top of his game. Of course, I WANNA GO FAST would benefit the most if the top two hook-up early. He is also a very sharp horse with two straight wins and could easily make it three. RAISING MEMO is hard to figure. He couldn't win for $12,500 then jumped up to beat $25,000 claimers. No surprise he couldn't keep up to $35K optional horses in his latest but he fits here and could make some noise from off the pace.

RACE THREE:  SLEWS PROSPECT drops to a level he was a pretty tough horse at last year and if he's ready to go he should handle this group. Considering his last outing that is a big if. Nonetheless, he has had a couple of strong works leading up to his return and he should get nice trip just off of speed that probably won't last. DREXEL has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in his last three starts culminating with a win in his latest. He has the best last race figure and if he continues his progress he should be right there again. Wilson abandons him to ride a very live looking HOLY MACK who is coming off of a solid race at this level. No wins at the distance in nine starts is the main concern but he certainly has come close enough.

RACE FOUR:  EVALUATE is coming off of a very long layoff but he worked a solid 6-furlongs on Aug. 1 and he ran well as a fresh horse here last year. If he is ready to go he should easily handle this field. WINDY DAY probably wants more distance but he did come close to winning a sprint at this level earlier in the year and he is usually right in the middle of things. He has burned a lot of money recently but maybe the switch to the leading rider will help get him over the top. AFLEET MAC made a strong move in his latest attempt in an abbreviated sprint and he just about won going this distance in his initial start this year. He is going to have to deal with other speed but he has run well from a stalking position in the past and the ones just in front of him figure to be giving it up late.

RACE FIVE:  ALITAX looks like the one to beat in a very competitive race for this level. She just missed in an abbreviated sprint in her second start back from a layoff and she ran the best race of her career when she debuted going this far in May. She's had a sharp work since she ran and she has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post. SMITTY'S GAL ran a big race to just miss in her debut June 19 but was a vet scratch when she was entered back on July 16. Her bullet three-furlong move on July 21 is a good sign that all is well, however, and it is encouraging to see Alvarado retain the mount. QUATRE DAMES takes the plunge and most of her races put her right in the middle of things. Prefer others with less races behind them but there won't be any arguments with anyone headed in this direction.

RACE SIX:  STORM ABOVE closed with good speed in a similar race and there should be plenty of speed for him to run down here. He should also be a little sharper in his second straight sprint. GOBAL WARMING came back with a sharp half-mile move after his game win in a $5,000 maiden race July 25 and he might be good enough to beat winners first time. He has enough speed to be involved right from the start and he looks as good as any in race that appears to be a wide-open event. NOTEMYTIME takes a substantial drop after fading in his latest which came on the heels of a short layoff. He beat Gobal Warming the last time they met and he should move forward in his second start back. AIMING FOR GLORY might be worth a stab at what should be an honest price. He is lightly raced and he could be set up perfectly coming off of an even effort in his first try going around three turns.

RACE SEVEN:  CHARTERHILL set fast fractions and kept on rolling when in a similar race following a short layoff and it looks like he should be able to control the tempo right from the start in his second start back. The horse he beat came back to win the B.C. Cup Stellar's Jay and if he breaks on top they are going to have a hard time catching him. CREW LEADER regressed quite a bit in his second start but that isn't the first time we have seen an impressive debut winner go in the other direction in his first try with winners. He also reportedly missed some training with a mild virus following his win and it wouldn't be surprising to see him bounce back with a big effort here. ROCKET ROAN hasn't run a bad race in his three-race career and figures to move forward in his second start back.

RACE EIGHT:  HONEY'S MONARCH got the worst of it of the three-horses battling through the early fractions and still held on well to finish third in a similar race July 25. He sheds 10 pounds for this and he should get a nice trip from either on the lead or from a stalking position behind speed that is stretching out for the first time. GAME SAVVY posted a career best Beyer Speed Figure for his win in a $5,000 maiden race in his second try going around three turns and if he continues his progress he could certainly win this. Strong trainer-jockey combo in his corner and over the past 5 years MacPherson has a 24 percent strike rate with horses facing winners for the first time. HEARTBREAK YOGI made a late move to pass Honey's Monarch last time and once again should have an contested pace to close into. He also figures to move forward in his second try at the distance.