Race Analysis for August 14

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: DICTATORSHIP may have tipped his hand with a bullet three-furlong move out of the gate on Aug. 7. He's the first foal out of a mare that placed in her only start at two and his sire is 2 for 14 with first time starters - 0 for 6 with 2year-olds. Barn can have them ready to go first time and it looks like they have this one primed for a big effort. DRINKINGONTHEJOB ran a decent race when she debuted at this level and she is coming off of a race where she was up close early before fading in a longer sprint. She should appreciate the cut back in distance. BAUHAUS is a half-sister to a couple of 2-year-old stakes winners, the best being $354K multiple stakes winner Star Prospector. Works are just okay and it is a bit surprising to see her show up for this price in her debut. She comes out of a live barn so it wouldn't be surprising to see her come out running, however.

RACE TWO: TEQUISQUIAPAN and BRYMIC'S GEM finished on even terms in their latest meeting and this could certainly go either way. TEQUISQUIAPAN gets the slight edge because of his better speed and there isn't a lot of that commodity in this field. He forced a quick pace in his latest and then couldn't keep up in the stretch. BRYMIC'S GEM hopped a bit at the start and probably would have been closer with a better start. He's been pretty far back in most of his sprints so not sure how much the slow beginning actually hurt him. Take your pick. ABERFELDIE goes for his fourth in a row and with his good tactical speed he should be sitting just off of what figures to be a moderate pace. ALYBYE ON FIRE looks like the one to catch and he could take them a long way with Franco taking over at 108 pounds.

RACE THREE: ANDUCCI posted his career best Beyer Speed Figure when he just missed in his latest and could go either way. He should have got a lot out of the race and could move forward, or it is possible he'll bounce. He put together a few good races last year so we'll opt for the former. SLEWS PROSPECT is the mystery horse in the race. He looked pretty good in a race for $5,000 Friday and scratched to drop here. Obviously there are some concerns with a horse coming back off of this type of layoff taking this big of drop. Nonetheless, he's in good hands and other than the top pick this is a pretty weak spot. Tough call. WILLIE KATCHEM keeps moving forward ever and could be coming up to a peak race.

RACE FOUR: MONTERO hasn't been able to win this year but she's been facing pretty tough horses and just about any of her races would win here. She had a decent work since her dead-heat for second on July 18 and she should be tough to handle with a clean trip. YOOROCK GAL steps up following a confidence boosting win and she also came back with a sharp half-mile move. She can be a tough horse to get past when she gets her head in front early and that could easily happen here. EMMITT'S GIRL has been first or second in her last five starts and at the very least should be considered for the exotics.

RACE FIVE: BOSCO'S QWIK was squeezed back at the start and then made up a lot of ground while going very wide around the stretch turn when he debuted for this price Aug. 1. He figures to move forward in his second start for a trainer who over the past 5 years has a 16 percent strike rate with horses making their second starts. W W WANDERER has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in his last three starts and has the best last race figure in the field. He appears to be heading in the right direction and if he continues his progress he could be the winner of what appears to be a competitive race. DOUBLIN THE GOLD has been right there in two straight starts at this level and once again figures to be involved right from the start.

RACE SIX: AGAINST THE SKY drops to a new low following a couple of dull efforts, especially her sixth-place finish in the B.C. Cup Distaff Aug. 2. She did have a wide trip and it was just her second route of the year so there are some reasons to forgive her. We'll assume she's ready for a big effort in the third start of her current form cycle and she not only has tons of back class, she is the only horse in the field with a win at the distance. RAINBOWSINTHEWOOD finished in front of AGAINST THE SKY in the Distaff and it was easily her career best performance. Obviously a similar effort puts her right there but she is certainly eligible to bounce. CRY CRY CRY just keeps winning winning winning and she certainly has the pedigree to go this far. She led from start to finish in her lone win at a middle distance and she'll need to be more patient with INCLUDE THE GRAND in the field.

RACE SEVEN: RESTLESS LADY showed signs of life by showing more early interest in her latest and could be coming back to the form that saw her reel off three straight wins last year. She has good tactical speed and could get a nice trip from just off of what could be a lively battle between DESPERATE and TAMARINDA. DAYMAKER will also appreciate a lively pace but as usual she is going to have a lot to do and her late move usually comes up just a big late. No surprise if she does get up in time but she'll likely be the favorite and it probably makes sense to try and beat her. DESPERATE looked good winning for $12,500 and then found optional horses beyond her scope. She fits here and could take them a long way if she clears early. At the least she should be able to hang around long enough to pick up a slice.

RACE EIGHT: LATE NITE LARRY is versatile enough that he can either be up close or come from behind and it is hard to say exactly how this race is going to shape up. He's been right there in his last two starts at this level and it is possible taking the blinkers off will help get him over the top. RAINBOW DASH comes out of the same race as the top pick and he was on heels going into the first turn - the extremely slow fractions probably had something to do with it - and then made a strong late move from along the rail. He sheds some weight and it wouldn't be surprising to see Pacheco try and get him involved early. PEMBRIDGE broke his maiden going this distance and he's been showing decent speed in his last couple of routes. He'll certainly appreciate the easier company after trying starter horses in his latest.