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Race Analysis August 20
By Randy GouldingRACE ONE: PEACH BLOSSOM has worked quickly leading up to his debut and he comes out of a barn that has been heating up lately. La Vanway has also done good work with his babies - 21 percent with first time starting 2-year-olds over the past five years. AIRAFFAIR adds Lasix and could be ready for a peak effort in his third start. He ran well in his first two races and he increased his Beyer Speed Figures in his second start. He is facing mostly first time starters and he could be gone if he breaks alertly from his inside post. BLITZEN'S FLASH would have been closer in his debut but he was stuck on the rail with nowhere to run in the stretch. He is a half-brother to $280K Slewpast who was a 2-year-old stakes winner so there could be some potential here and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take a big step forward in his second start. FORTHELOVEOFIT may have tipped her hand with a sharp 3-furlong move out of the gate July 31 and she should certainly be fit enough with three easy works since.
RACE TWO: BERNIE THE BANDIT faded when he forced the pace in his latest sprint but the blinkers and a lot of weight are coming off and he could be dangerous with the move back to a route. He ran a decent race going this far in his previous race and he could take them a long way if the equipment change helps him relax a bit more. DIABLO PASS broke poorly in his latest and then couldn't make up the lost ground. Most of his races put him right there and he is clearly the main threat to the top pick. LEND ME A DIME didn't run a jump in his latest but he was facing $25K winners and he is taking a substantial drop into a $5,000 maiden race. He is a half-brother to a couple of route winners so he should be able to handle the distance.
RACE THREE: OUTOFTHECLOUDS took a huge step forward in his second start in the B.C. Cup Nursery and should be tough to handle with the move into a maiden race. He showed a lot more speed than he did in his debut and he was able to hang around a long time despite forcing quick fractions. The slightly shorter distance won't hurt and from the looks of his sharp interim move he appears to be ready for another big effort. TAI SHAN has run three solid races in a row and once again figures to be in the mix. He will need to improve to beat the top pick but he sure looks like the one that will round out the exacta. STORMY CANUCK is a half-brother to a couple of horses that earned over $200K the most important being multiple stakes winner Shelby Madison who won her debut as a 2-year-old. He picked things up in his latest work and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come out running. CHAPEL BOY didn't follow up his solid debut in his second start but it might be worth giving him another chance in the exotics.
RACE FOUR: OVERTIME MAGIC takes the plunge after another solid effort in his latest and should be tough to handle if he runs his usual race. He really hasn't put in a bad effort in any of his four career starts and he could also be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. His latest Beyer Speed Figure certainly stands out. YOLLA LAD showed more speed in his second start and he is also dropping after finishing third behind the top pick. With only two starts he is certainly eligible to move forward enough to at least make it interesting. GUILDED IN SILVER just missed in a much improved effort in his latest. Not sure if it was the wet track that moved him up or that he is just starting to get the hang of it. UNCLE GENO also picked things in his five-furlong move Aug. 7 and might be live first time out.
RACE FIVE: J J'S WANDER is overdue to break through and it looks like she could get it done here. She just missed in her last two starts at this level and she figures to get a perfect trip from just off of suspect speed. SEE L. A. should appreciate the move back to a sprint after taking the lead into the stretch when she stretched out to a middle distance for the first time. She could be in the garden spot if the top pick and MALIGNE LAKE hook up early. MALIGNE LAKE didn't break that sharply when she was heavily favored in an abbreviated sprint at this level but at least she finished well. There isn't much doubt Pacheco will try and put her on the lead and see how far she'll go. If she runs the race she ran in her second start it could be the whole way. That is a big if considering her last couple at this distance, however.
RACE SIX: PALANCA has been showing good speed at Emerald Downs going longer and could be dangerous if he breaks alertly in this abbreviated sprint. His trainer is 0 for 4 at the current meet but over the past five years Essex has won with 18 percent of the horses he's brought up here from Emerald. This guy is 8-years-old but he still looks fast enough to be involved early and he'll certainly appreciate the cut back in distance and the shorter stretch. WANDERING GYPSY posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure for his win in a $5K maiden race at this distance two back and then he faltered after showing good speed when he tried a more traditional sprint in his first try with winners. He won't mind the shorter distance and anything coming out of this barn has to be respected. CRASPEDIA won his only start at the distance and has shown good speed in both of his races going around two turns.
RACE SEVEN: NUMAANY just missed to MOSCATO in his latest and we know for sure NUMAANY can go at least this far while there is no guarantee Moscato will be able to carry his speed another two furlongs. Numaany also came back with a sharp five-furlong move Aug. 13 and should make amends from a stalking position. KALOOKAN BOSS has come close going 1 1/4 miles and he also ran an even race when he finished fourth in a minor stakes race at 1 5/8 miles so he should be able to handle the distance. His trainer has a 29 percent strike rate with horses going this distance over the past five years - 2 for 7 to be exact and 6 finished in the money. MOSCATO was a game winner over Numaany in his latest and he also handled Kalookan Boss when they met in Golden Gate last Dec. Just not sure he'll be able to handle the extra two furlongs. FINALLY KRUISIN certainly did in the B.C. Cup Marathon and that is half the battle in marathons. This is clearly a tougher spot but he won pretty easily and he doesn't appear to be out of his league.
RACE EIGHT: MCGILL runs well fresh, has worked well enough for her return and could take them all the way for a trainer that has been heating up lately. DANCEFOURSEVEN took a big step forward in the second start of her current form cycle and from the looks of her bullet four-furlong move in :46.60 seconds last Saturday she should be ready for another solid effort. QUICKENS was good enough to win a sprint for $12,500 just three starts back and should appreciate the drop in class after a decent effort going longer versus tougher in her latest. There should be enough speed to set her up and her trainer has won with two of the last seven horses he has moved from a route to a sprint. SARATOGA OUTLAW has been in the thick of things in her last four starts and should be considered for the exotics.
