Race Analysis for Canada Day
Analysis by Randy GouldingRACE ONE: DUTAMIS has moved forward in his last two starts and the improvement goes hand in hand with his new ability to rate. Once again he should get a nice trip from just off of what should be a contested pace and he could easily make it three in a row with a clean trip. TERRELL ME A STORY comes out of the same race and he set the pace before tiring late. He could be ready for a peak performance in his third start this year but he is going to have to deal with other speed. PUNCH BACK lost a bit of ground going into the first turn but he had every chance to get past DUTAMIS and was clearly outrun in the stretch. He moves inside so he should save some ground and it wouldn't be that surprising to see Hamel try and put him right on the lead.
RACE TWO: HUFFMAN has won two of three this year and he looked pretty strong in the stretch when he beat most of the ones he's up against again today. He came back with a strong five-furlong work on June 24 and can’t find any obvious reason why he shouldn't be able to retain his sharp form. BEARROCK N ROLL was a beaten favorite in the same race. He forced the issue early and it looked like he might pull away form Huffman going around the stretch turn but he tired to finish fourth. He looked pretty sharp in his latest half-mile work and it wouldn't be a surprise if he redeemed himself. BOUNDLESS CAT may have bounced off of his win following a long layoff and it didn't help that he went three-wide around the first turn while forcing the issue early. He moves inside and since he has won all of his races by coming from off the pace it wouldn't be surprising to see him being eased off of what figures to be a lively battle up front.
RACE THREE: Not sure why TEIDE'S connections thought he had to duke it out with a horse he figured to easily handle from a stalking position in his last start, but they did, and it cost him the win. His stablemate picked up the pieces when he understandably tired late, but that probably isn't going to happen here. This time TEIDE figures to either set a moderate pace or sit just off of SPAGHETTI MOUSE, who will also want to slow things down. Either way, the 2009 local Horse of the Year is going to be very tough to beat. SPAGHETTI MOUSE looked like a winner every step of the way in his latest win and should get a similar trip here. He certainly won't mind the move to a distance he has won eight races at. ALMOST TIME couldn't have had it any better with TEIDE sacrificing himself in a battle with Tommydanzigger. Can't see him getting the same kind of setup here and he'll probably have a bit too much to do late.
RACE FOUR: QUATCHI is a half-brother to a horse that won the Grade 3 B.C. Derby and his sire could run all day so he shouldn't have any trouble handling a middle distance. He ran a much improved race in his latest and from the looks of his bullet five-furlong move in :59.80 seconds June 24 the addition of blinkers could move him up even more. ROSES FOR BEN cuts his price in half and he ran an even race in his first try going around three turns. He was coming off of just one sprint this year so it wouldn't be surprising to see him take a big step forward here. VIA COL VENTO figures to get the distance and the only concern is he has had just one race this year. He is taking a big drop, though, and over the past five years his trainer is 18 percent with horses stretching out for the first time.
RACE FIVE: CONCERT MUSIC has yet to taste defeat and she looked pretty comfortable rating behind a slow pace in her latest sprint which should help her in a race she doesn't want to be anywhere near the lead in. She is stretching out for the first time and she is out of a mare that won going long so she should get the distance. SUMMER SONG ran well enough while finishing fourth behind CONCERT MUSIC in her only start this year and she is a much better horse going long with four wins from five starts at the distance. She romped with in her second start last year and she certainly looks like the main threat to end Concert Music's run. KAWEAH PRINCESS has chased the top pick home in both of her starts here and she shouldn't mind the added distance. Plus, her lone win going this far came going around three turns in a stakes race at Fairplex. INCLUDE THE GRAND is the speed of the party and could stick around long enough to pick up a slice.
RACE SIX: CANDLEINTHEWINDOW drops to a new low after setting an honest pace and tiring in her first try at a middle distance. The first and last place horses both came back to win their next starts by 9 3/4 lengths last weekend -- Chilecito here and Slap You Silly in Kamloops. CANDLEINTHEWINDOW should appreciate the drop and she should be set up nicely for the move back to a sprint. VINTAGE VINO hung when it looked like she was making a winning move when she dropped to this level. It was still a decent race and she will probably be a bit closer to the pace this time. NEW MOON ADVANTAGE tired in her first start this year and should be a lot tighter with a race behind her. WAITNONAWOMAN debuts for a trainer has solid stats with first time starters - 15 percent over the past five years - and should be considered for the exotics.
RACE SEVEN: AND ALL THAT JAZZ ran a much improved race when he dropped to this level last time and he came back with a bullet five-furlong move on June 25. He could be ready for a big effort and if he is the former stakes winner will be tough to handle. BEAR MOST WANTED came from just off the pace to edge the top pick and once again he is the horse to beat. BEALE STREET has been right there in all four of his starts this year and he won't mind the move back to a sprint after setting the pace and just getting beat in the final strides at this level. CHEROKEE TEAR was sent off as the chalk and got hung out while making a late bid around the stretch turn before flattening out in the stretch. He could make amends if a duel develops up front.
RACE EIGHT: It is hard to separate OTERO and DEAREST PRINCESS who have taken turns beating each other by small margins in their last two races. They are both out of mares that went unplaced in all of their races and they are by sires that won going long. They have similar Tomlinson Figures for the distance and both have won three of their last four races. Of course Otero is just a half-length away from being undefeated. They certainly run like they will have no problem stretching out for the first time and their trainers both have solid stats with horses stretching out for the first time. Flip a coin. SHEZA FOXY JACKPOT and EBONY N ICE are the only two horses in the field with a win at the distance and we'll give the edge to SHEZA FOXY JACKPOT who is the only multiple route winner in the field. Plus, she was claimed out her last race and over the past five years Essex is 37 percent when he runs them back first time.
RACE NINE: WINDY DAY was probably coming back a little too soon when he tired as the heavy chalk the last time he went long. He finished full of run to just miss in his latest sprint and should be ready to roll now. CANDLESTICK PARK somehow managed to overcome a very slow pace to win his latest and he should have a bit more speed to run at here. He also figures to move forward in his second straight route. TIMELESS DANCER and SHENANDOAH RIVER finished a nose apart when they met in a bottom level claimer last time and TIMELESS DANCER could have the edge with his tactical speed in a race where they probably won't be going all that fast up front. HAPPY GO LUCKY certainly fits here and could be ready for a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle and it will be his second straight route.
