Race Analysis for July 11

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: NORTHERN INTENT earned a decent Beyer Speed Figure for his win over bottom-level maidens June 26 and might be good enough to beat winners first time. He is lightly raced so there should be some upside potential and he is certainly bred to go long. He might be able to clear early and if he does he could be gone. PEMBRIDGE looked like he was going to make some serious noise when made a strong move on the stretch turn but he got hung out pretty wide and maybe that's why he flattened out in the stretch. He could easily win this with a better trip. LONG GONE BALDRY did have to wait for room on the stretch turn but he didn't get stuck out in the middle of the track like PEMBRIDGE. It was encouraging to see him finish full of run and that makes two solid efforts with Rivera aboard.

RACE TWO: RALLYING CRY looked good winning his latest and he figures to get a similar trip from a stalking position. He has plenty of back class and should be able handle the step up in class. BREEZE'S STORM set the pace and couldn't hold off RALLYING CRY and once again looks like the one they will have to deal with early. He was claimed out of the race and over the past five years his new trainer has a 16 percent strike rate when he runs them back the first time. He is also having a strong meet. SAVO ISLAND figures to move forward in his second start back following a long layoff and he ran a good race to finish second at this level in his comeback race. It has been a while since he has won a race however, so not sure you want to accept what figures to be a short price.

RACE THREE: P. S. TOUCH DOWN ran another solid race in her latest and a similar performance should get her over the top. She easily has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and she has been unlucky not to have graduated by now. She has decent speed and should get a nice stalking trip from just off of what should be a contested pace. PRINCESS RAINIER took a small step forward in her second start this year and just third overall. She has good speed, drew the rail, and if she keeps progressing could take them a long way. CALL ME JEWEL was a bit ambitious when she jumped up to face straight maidens after finishing third at this level behind PRINCESS RAINIER in her previous start but she didn’t disgrace herself and there should be an honest enough pace for her to close into.

RACE FOUR: MY BAILOUT is taking a serious step up in class but that was a dazzling performance last time and she posted a pretty lofty Beyer Speed Figure. Can she repeat the same kind of performance under what figures to be a lot more pressure? That remains to be seen but she still looks like the one to beat. OH SO NOTISED drops back into a conditional race after trying stakes fillies in her first try going a middle distance and she will appreciate both the drop in class and the cutback in distance. Not sure how she'll respond coming back this quickly, though. AUDZEEZEE made a nice late move to pick up third behind OH SO NOTISED in a similar race June 13, has worked smartly since and should have an honest pace to work with. PAT'S BID should have some confidence after dropping down to win for $25K in her latest and her new owner-trainer combo have done well with their recent claims.

RACE FIVE: ALYBYE ON FIRE showed he can come from off the pace when he finished a solid second in his first start with winners and he figures to get a similar trip from probably a little closer here. BLASTING PISTOL took a big step forward in his second start following a long layoff and could be ready for a big effort in his third start back. He should be involved right from the start and could be dangerous if he does clear early. MUCHO VERDE chased a lively pace and then couldn't keep up in the very late stages in the same race ALYBYE ON FIRE exits. They probably won't be going as fast during the early part of the race and that could help his chances late if he doesn't get hung out going into the first turn. HEARTBREAK YOGI has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in three straight races and at the least should be considered for the exotics.

RACE SIX: DYNA STROLL has looked great in the mornings following his upset in the Jim Coleman Province and he was a pretty impressive winner the only time he went this distance in the $107K Ascot Graduation last year. Not sure if they will set him up like they did in his latest but there is certainly enough potential speed in the race. SENSE OF HUMOR set wicked fractions under pressure and still managed to narrowly miss to DYNA STROLL in his first try with stakes company. Over the past five years his trainer has a 35 percent strike rate with horses stretching out for the first time and that includes Dearest Princess who won the Supernaturel Stakes for 3-year-old fillies July 1. His dam was strictly a sprinter and neither of his two siblings have a win going long, however. On the other hand SILLY FELLA is out of a mare that won multiple stakes going long including the Grade 3 Ballerina and her only other foal to race has won two routes. SILLY FELLA ran well to finish second behind DYNA STROLL in his only try at a middle distance. He got fried in a duel with SENSE OF HUMOR last time but he can rate and the added distance could work in his favor.

RACE SEVEN: CAN'T WAIT FOREVER took the plunge and had an easy time of it getting his non-winners of two. He is going to have to deal with other speed but not sure for how long and if he takes any kind of step forward he's going to be tough to handle. FISH ON FRIDAY rebounded with a huge race after tiring in his first try going around three turns. He shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint and if TWOFOURTIME can stick with CAN'T WAIT FOREVER long enough it could set up nicely for him. KATANA KEN ran a solid race to finish third behind a horse that was taking a substantial drop when he ran for this level last time and we'll assume he is going to be taken off the pace like he was when he won his previous race.

RACE EIGHT: MONEY X CHANGE held on well to finish third in a similar race after dueling with El Sinaloense. There doesn't appear to be any other confirmed speed and he'll be tough to catch if he breaks alertly from his inside post. FEU RIVER finished second in the same race horse and the horse that beat him was taking a huge drop in class. He is going to need a little help up front and it is possible RX REGISTRAR will be somewhere in the mix early, but it does look like the shape of the race won't work in his favor. BLASTING GUNN probably needed his latest and he figures to move forward in his second start back. He does have some tactical speed and this would certainly be a good place to use it.