Race Analysis for July 18

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: AIRAFFAIR may have tipped his hand with a bullet 3-furlong move out of the gate on July 10 and most of his works have been pretty quick. He is by a sire that is just 1 for 15 with debuting juveniles but he is the first foal out of a mare that was stakes placed at 2. KENTUCKY CLIPPER has a solid set of works showing, especially his half-mile move in :48 seconds flat on June 19. He is a half-brother to Cabron who won his debut at 2. The bad news is his sire is just 3 for 91 with first time starting 2-year-olds and the rail can be a tricky place to start from going this distance first time out. OUTOFTHECLOUDS is by an excellent debut sire - 22 percent with 2-year-olds making their first start - and he comes out of a barn that can have them ready to roll first time out. Works are on the slow side but the leading rider is attracted so it wouldn't be surprising if he comes out running.

RACE TWO: P. S. BRAVO hasn't been able to get it done as the heavy chalk in both of his starts this year but he could be ready for a peak performance in the third start of his current form cycle and he has plenty of speed to take advantage of his inside post. He could make amends if he breaks alertly. CRASPEDIA looked good winning his debut going 3 1/2 furlongs and the horse that finished came back to win his next start. He has worked well enough leading up to his first try in a two turn sprint and although it would have been nice to see him come back a little sooner his trainer has solid stats when he brings them back in this time period. QUICK FIX should appreciate the move back to a sprint after forcing the pace before tiring in his latest.

RACE THREE: TAI SHAN set an honest pace before tiring late to finish second in his debut and he figures to take a big step forward in his second start for a trainer who over the past 5-years has a 24 percent strike rate with 2-year-olds making their second start. OVERVALUED has been very sharp in her works and she is by a Graded stakes winning sprinter who is off to an excellent start as a win early sire with 3 of his first 5 runners winning their 2-year-old debuts. She is also a half-brother to a couple of horses that won first time out at 2 including juvenile stakes winner I Spy Wolfie. TECOLOTE comes out of the same barn and same race as the top pick and he picked things up late after getting off to a slow start. His dam, who was also trained by Forster, was a stakes winner at 2, 3, 4 and 5 for earnings of $364K. She was a much better horse going long so he might want more distance.

RACE FOUR: WINDY DAY is clearly the horse to beat but that was the case in his last three when he lost as the 3-2 favorite each time. Nonetheless, he easily has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and he's versatile so he can either stalk SUPERIOR STRAITS or go right to the front. LONG JOURNEY picked things up in his latest work, gets in light and over the past 5-years his trainer has a 19 percent strike rate when he brings them back from a layoff of 180 days or more. Long Journey also has plenty of back class and the only time he finished off the board here was in the Ascot Graduation when he was 2 and the track was sloppy. SUPERIOR STRAITS only has a couple of wins from 22 starts but his good tactical speed should serve him well in this spot so you might want to consider using him in the exotics.

RACE FIVE: DIABLO PASS has improved quite a bit since he stretched out and that isn't very surprising considering his mom was a route stakes winner and most of his siblings to race won going long. He made a strong move to just miss in his latest and once again there should be an honest pace for him to work with. GAME SAVVY looks like the main speed and he should appreciate the drop in price. He forced very fast fractions when he stretched out for the first time in his latest and if Perez can get him to slow it down a bit he could be tough to catch. SAVUTI was up close to an honest pace in the same race the top pick exits and he held on well to finish fourth in his first try going long. He could take a big step forward in his second start at the distance and should be considered for the exotics.

RACE SIX: LOWTHER STREET figures to move forward after edging Senor Rojo in just his second start this year and it was also his first time going around three turns. He has good tactical speed and figures to get a ground-saving trip from not too far off of what figures to be a lively pace. SENOR ROJO shows up every time and once again figures to be in the mix at the finish. He just missed to the top pick last time and from the looks of his bullet 5-furlong move in :58.60 seconds July 11 he could be coming up to a peak effort. BURJ DUBAI has been very impressive in both of his starts sprinting and he certainly has the pedigree to get the distance. He obviously has the talent but not sure if he has the temperament at this stage in his career so we'll try and beat him with his stablemate.

RACE SEVEN: MONTERO has won most of her races from a stalking position so we can forgive her for getting beat at this level as the chalk two back when she set the pace. She came back with a strong race to finish second in her latest and a similar trip should be in the cards today. TAMARINDA does like to be involved early and if she breaks alertly she could be the one they have to catch. DESPERATE also has some speed, however, and if they get hooked up early it would certainly help the chances of QUICKENS who came from well back to win at this level in her latest. She looked pretty sharp in her half-mile move on July 11 and should be ready for another good effort. REMARKABLY FREE hasn't run a bad race in her career but there are gaps in her works and this will be her first start since she won her third in a row last August.

RACE EIGHT: CANDLEINTHEWINDOW was forced out on the first turn and then had a wide trip the rest of the way when she was favored to win her latest. She moves inside, drops in class, has a sharp work since she ran and can make amends with a clean trip. SLAP YOU SILLY posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure for her win in Kamloops and if she can run a similar race here she should be in the hunt. LA NORIA has filled out the tri in her last four races and once again should be part of any exotics ticket. GRACEFUL CAPTAIN adds blinkers, will run on Lasix for the first time and drops to a new low. She would look a lot better if there was more than just one work showing since she ran over a month ago, however.