Race Analysis for Friday, July 23

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: ABERFELDIE has come around in a big way in his last two races and from the look of his bullet half-mile move in a very fast :45.60 last Sunday he could still improving. He also looks like the best speed in the field and could be gone if he breaks on top. PUNCH BACK will be happy to get away from Dutamis who he finished behind in three straight races. He is dropping to a new low for a trainer that is having a solid meet and is an obvious threat from a stalking position. ALYBYE ON FIRE sheds a lot of weight after his sharp win versus cheaper on July 11. He couldn't catch the top pick the last time they met but he figures to get a nice trip from just off the pace and at the least should be able to pick up a slice.

RACE TWO: BESPOKE figures to relish the added yardage and she won't mind the easier company she is facing in her first route. Her dam, who won a couple of routes and was stakes placed in the Sam Houston Oaks, has had two previous foals, both route winners including Grade 2 placed $186K Character Builder. MY BLACK PEARL couldn't keep up in her latest sprint but she had a pretty wide trip, especially around both turns. She moves inside, ran well in all three of her tries going around 3-turns and the only concern is that she is coming back in just 7 days. SASSY CASEY has also done her best running going long but her lack of speed is a concern in a race where they might be dawdling up front. SURVIVANT showed more speed in her latest sprint and we'll assume the hot bug will be sending her to the lead and see how far she'll go. Her dam was strictly a sprinter, however, and her sibs have combined to win a single race from 15 starts going long. AFTER THE RAIN is a full-sister to $232K Grade 2 placed African Violet and if she can run at all she should show it here.

RACE THREE: CLASSIC ALLEY KAT has been an impressive winner in all three of her starts at the meet and should be able to handle the jump in class. She set very fast fractions in her latest and still finished full of run. She is also capable of stalking if SMOKIN DANIELLE breaks alertly and is gunned hard from her inside post. SMOKIN DANIELLE drops into a straight claiming price for the first time since she was haltered for $12,500 just over a year ago. She came back with a sharp work after running a dull race as the chalk in her latest and gets in light with Pacheco taking the mount. DASHING DAISY is a bit win shy at this track but she keeps picking up slices and should be considered for the exotics. DAYMAKER should appreciate what figures to be a lively pace and could get up in time to pick up a minor share.

RACE FOUR: BAD SNEAKERS is aggressively spotted after being claimed for this price and winning the Similkameen Cup in his first start for his new connections. He has a strong record at the distance and if you toss his sprint in his first start this year and when he finished fourth going 1 3/4 miles at the end of the 2009 meet, he hasn't been out of the exacta in his last eight starts. RALLYING CRY finished second going 1 1/4 miles in Great Britain so he should be able to handle this distance. He is also a very sharp horse with two straight wins and he might not have cared for the sloppy conditions when he got beat as the chalk at this level three back. ALERT N WISE probably doesn't want to go this far but there isn't a lot of other speed in the field and he could take them a long way if he is allowed to get away on his own.

RACE FIVE: SAVO ISLAND hasn't won for a while but he is dropping to a new low and most of his races put him right there. He could also be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. He has won from a stalking position and the key will be if Alvarado can tuck him in behind what figures to be an honest and contested pace. If not, he's probably going to lose a lot of ground while dueling and that certainly won't help his chances. TOUGH TORQUE just missed in a similar race on July 10 and that makes four solid races this year. He also likes to be involved early and if they all go it could set up nicely for FEU RIVER who looked pretty sharp winning from a stalking position in an easier spot July 11. He won't be anywhere near the lead here, but he has come from well off the pace to win in the past and this could set up perfectly for him.

RACE SIX: TRIEX has been showing good speed in the bushes and the horse he beat on June 5 ran okay here last year, plus he came back to win his next start by 10. He should appreciate the shorter distance after tiring in his latest and the leading rider is attracted. SIMILKAMEEN STORM ran a strong race to finish second in his debut going this distance and could certainly improve enough to win this. He's the first foal out of mare that won 3 of her 4 races, all sprints, and he is by an excellent win early sire. GENTLY BENTLEY earned a pretty low Beyer Speed Figure for his win in Kamloops but he did win and all three of his siblings are winners including $102K Leo's Country Kat who won 12 sprints. Lasix is being added and he looked pretty sharp in his 4-furlong move on July 17.

RACE SEVEN: AND ALL THAT JAZZ should be able to clear early and maybe with the break in the weights he'll be able to carry his speed the whole way. He looked like he was home and cooled out his last two and couldn't get it done so not sure how short of a price you should be willing to accept. BEAR MOST WANTED stumbled badly leaving the starting gate and then rushed up to put some pressure on AND ALL THAT JAZZ before tiring in his latest. He looked good winning from slightly off the pace in his previous start and if Perez can get him to settle early he could be a serious threat late. BEALE STREET has been right there in his last three at this level and he worked a snappy half-mile on Sunday so he should be ready for another solid effort. Take your pick in a race where it looks like any of them could jump up and win it.

RACE EIGHT: SOLIDAGO got off to a poor start and then was stuck on the rail behind horses going down the backstretch while the winner was getting the jump on him in his latest start at this level. He finished full of run to just miss and the main concern is that his last race was almost a month ago and there are no interim works showing. Nonetheless, he's in good hands and if he comes close to repeating his latest he'll be tough to beat. RAINBOW DASH and KATANA KEN dead-heated for third in a similar race July 11 and we'll give the edge to KATANA KEN because he has more tactical speed and despite his outside post he should get a nice trip from a stalking position. TWOFOURTIME looks like the one they'll have to catch and if the track is favoring speed he could take them a long way.