Race Analysis July 31
By Randy GouldingRACE ONE: ROYAL BANNER figures to move forward in his second start and he already owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field. He should also get a nice trip from just off of what could be a hotly contested battle up front. VYING FOR GLORY has worked sharply since he faded badly on June 19 and could be more settled with the blinkers coming off. Perez accepts the call from MacPherson and notice the strong rider-trainer stats. Not sure if they will be sending REVISIONIST or not. If they don't, VYING FOR GLORY will be tough to handle. REVISIONIST ran a big race from off the pace in his debut and then faded when he set fast fractions in his second start. If he goes he could get fried in a duel with Vying for Glory. If he doesn't he could have a hard time catching him. Tough call.
RACE TWO: LATE NITE LARRY has been right there in all of his sprints this year and he made a nice move from off the pace in his latest. There doesn't appear to be any other speed in the field and he can either go to the front or stalk what will likely be a very slow pace. RAINBOW DASH has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and he came back with a strong half-mile move on July 28. He does his best running from off the pace and not sure if the shape of the race will work in his favor, however. GREAT GETAWAY is reunited with Perez who rode him the last time he won and he might be a little sharper in his second straight sprint. His Beyer Speed Figures aren't out of line and the big concern is his lack of speed in a race where they don't figure to be going very fast early.
RACE THREE: HAMPTON WICK has enough tactical speed to take advantage of his inside post and he is coming off of a win for this price June 5 and a near miss for $15K July 1. He's had a decent interim work and should be ready for another solid effort. LADNER LAD takes the plunge and shortens up after not being able to keep up with tougher company in the 1 1/16 miles Chris Loseth. He did win going 3 1/2 furlongs last year so he should be okay with the move back to a sprint. He also ran well going this distance three back and the only concern is that he looked pretty good winning a $50K optional race June 19 so it is a bit surprising to see him show up at this level. TEQUISQUIAPAN should appreciate the move back to a sprint after showing good speed in back to back routes. His trainer has solid stats with horses shortening up and he has enough speed to be prominent right from the start.
RACE FOUR: LAND OF SILVER is on a roll right now and might be able to stand the jump in class. She has come from out of the clouds in her last two wins and with a couple of sprinters stretching out she could have an honest pace to work with. KATELLIENA had her streak stopped when she moved up to this level in her latest but she didn’t get beat by much and she had to wait for room while the first two finishers were making their moves at the quarter-pole. SHELBYANN ran a big race to finish just in front of KATELLIENA and she is certainly eligible to move forward in her second straight route. DRAFTING FOR SPEED will be stretching out for the first time in her 17-race career and she has the pedigree to get the distance. Expect Fuentes to put her right on the lead and it wouldn't be surprising to see her take them a long way.
RACE FIVE: CRASPEDIA got a little tired when he went around two turns for the first time and should be set for a big effort in his second try at this level and distance. He is going to have to deal with other speed but it looks like he can stalk and he should get a nice trip from just off speed that is a bit suspect. T J GEMINI made a strong late move to just miss when he dropped to this level last Sat. and if he can handle the quick turn return he should be right there again. Over the past 5 years his trainer is 2 for 20 with horses coming back in a week or less. STORM ABOVE is the only horse in the field with more than a single win and both of them came sprinting last year so he shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint. LOCKSMITH has the best speed but hasn't been able to carry is this far this year. Maybe today's the day if the track is favoring front runners.
RACE SIX: PRIVATE MAMBO got off to a poor start and then made strong late move to just miss when he debuted at this level July 17. He figures to move forward in his second start for a trainer that has a 16 percent strike rate with second time shooters over the past 5 years. SPRING SOIREE comes out of the same race and he battled the whole way with the winner before giving way late. Once again he figures to be involved right from the start and is an obvious threat to take them the whole way. BLUE THE SAIL might be worth a look at what should be a good price. He took a small step forward in his second start this year and he has had two solid works since he ran. The blinkers go back on and he posted a Beyer Speed Figure that would put him right in the mix in his final start of 2009 while wearing shades.
RACE SEVEN: MEAUX POWER came up a little short when he stretched out for the first time this year and he could be set for a big effort in his second straight route. He beat a decent group of horses when he won an allowance race in his final start of 2009 and with his good tactical speed he should get a nice trip from his inside post. KWIK buried the top pick last time and it wouldn't shock anyone if he did it again. He did post a career best Beyer Speed Figure however, so it also wouldn't be surprising if he bounced a bit. EL CUGAT fired a bullet when he worked 5-furlongs on July 27 and that makes two good works since he faded badly in his latest. This is by far the easiest spot he's been in since he won the Chris Loseth Stakes last year and he is certainly going to appreciate the easier company. He has enough speed to clear early but he can also stalk so Perez has more than one option.
RACE EIGHT: SAVO ISLAND likes to be involved early so he was probably done when he broke a few steps slow in his latest. He ran okay, though, closing into a slow pace while going pretty wide. He moves inside, drops another level, and could be tough to handle if he breaks alertly. MONEY X CHANGE has been right there in his last three starts at this level and distance and once again should be involved early. Considering his sharp form he'll probably stick around long enough to be part of the exotics. There is other speed in field, LUKIN AWESOME in particular, and if a duel does develop it could set up nicely for SELIMAN who is coming off of his best performance this year.
