Race Analysis for July 4

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: ELECTRIC ELISE came back with two solid works following her very good debut where she finished second and earned a race high Beyer Speed Figure. She is a half-sister to a couple of stakes winners and over the past five years her trainer is 20 percent with second time shooters. WANDO WOMAN took a big step forward in her second start and her trainer thought enough of her to enter her in a stakes race in case this race didn't fill. She might want more distance - a couple of siblings are multiple route winners - but she has looked pretty sharp in her last couple of works and if Hoverson can keep her in touch early she could make a lot of noise late. JEZEBELLE is eligible to improve in her second start and she has also worked sharply since she finished on almost even terms with Wando Woman in her debut.

RACE TWO: MCGILL comes right back for the same price following a relatively easy win and it looks like she should be able to control the tempo right from the start. If she breaks alertly they are going to have a hard time getting past her. MIA DOLCE shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint and the drop in class following a very good effort in her first try going long. She has good tactical speed and should be able to stay in close range of MCGILL. Not sure if she's going to get any help up front, though. SHELBYANN has improved in her last couple of starts and although she is eligible for a conditional claimer she doesn't seem to be out of line here. DRAFTING FOR SPEED tries hard every time and should be considered for the exotics.

RACE THREE: DIANA'S LEGACY walked out of the gate when she debuted for this price and after making a strong move into a very fast pace she tired a bit in the stretch. The winner came back to win a $12,500 claming race by 12-lengths. This gal figures to take a big step forward in her second start and over the past five years her new trainer has won with 19 percent of the horses she has brought back the first time after being claimed. DIANA’S LEGACY also had a couple of sharp works since she ran and the leading rider keeps the faith. SUMKINDAFUN has been right there in two of her three starts at this level this year and once again figures to be in the mix. She has okay speed in a race they probably won't be going all that fast and is obviously a major player again. BELLA AVIVA also figures to be involved right from the start and at the very least should be considered for the exotics.

RACE FOUR: ANDUCCI got shuffled back going into the first turn before he made a big move while going at least 5-wide around the stretch turn and he only got beat by a length when he stretched out in just his second start this year. He should be able to save some ground from his inside post and it wouldn't be surprising to see him a little closer to the pace this time. DUELLING PISTOL beat the top pick as the lukewarm chalk and once again should be involved from start to finish. The pace could be a little quicker with ORGANIST stretching out for the first time, however. GALAHAD ran evenly in the same race and won't mind if ORGANIST makes them work a little harder up front. ORGANIST is a 6-year-old so it is a bit surprising to see that he hasn't tried to go this far in any of his 29 starts. He will likely be put on the lead and while MacPherson is strong in the sprint to route category, over the past five years he is nine percent with horses stretching out for the first time. Not sure what to make out of the very slow work showing on June 27, as well.

RACE FIVE: WESTERN DELTA adds blinkers, gets in with a feather and will appreciate the drop in class. She has worked sharply since she ran and we're going to guess the plan is to put her right on the lead and see how far she'll go. Over the past five years her trainer is 28 percent with horses going long for the second time. MY BLACK PEARL may have bounced after running a big race in her first try going long and it wouldn't be surprising to see her rebound with a better effort here. She also drew the rail where she should be able to save some valuable ground from a stalking position or possibly on the lead if WESTERN DELTA doesn't leave there running. SASSY CASEY has made strong late moves in her last two starts and certainly won't mind if the top two hook up early.

RACE SIX: PARTY PROSPECTOR hasn't run a bad race in any of his two-turn sprints and he moves inside where he should be able to save some ground this time. He broke sharply enough in his latest but if he would have been sent hard he would have got hung out pretty wide. He was unlucky when the second flight took him out on the first turn and he never got close to the rail the rest of the way. He figures to get a more aggressive ride this time and could take them all the way if he breaks on top. RETRIGGER wont' mind the move back to a sprint after he pressed an honest pace before tiring in his first try at a middle distance. STREET PATROL didn't run a jump when he tried to stretch out for the first time and could rebound with the move back to a sprint.

RACE SEVEN: BEAULAH FAY set honest fractions before tiring in her last couple of sprints that both came up pretty tough and might be better off stalking speed that probably won't last here. She won two of her four starts from a stalking position and with TAMIS STORMTROOPER in the field it is possible she'll get the perfect trip if Alvarado can get her to relax early. REDNECK LEGEND also has good speed and she has run well in all three of her races. The drop is certainly a concern and she would look a lot better if there was at least one work since she ran almost a month ago. EMMITT'S GIRL came from the clouds to beat cheaper non-winners of the year and with all the potential speed signed on there is a good chance they will set the table for her again.

RACE EIGHT: DON'TWAITFORME has shown a lot of potential in his first two starts and if he can leave the starting gate a little better he should be tough to handle. He took a big step forward in his second start and there is a good chance the progress will continue. BRED ROYAL has shown good speed in both of his races and he held on well to finish a clear second when he ran into a very tough Burj Dubai in his first start here. He may have bounced when he was favored over DON'TWAITFORME in his latest but he could easily rebound here. SILVER RULER looked very sharp in his five-furlong move last Sunday and he ran well to finish second to a couple of pretty nice horses in both of his starts last year. He is worth a close look at what could be a decent price. AIN and REVISIONIST are coupled and both look pretty live with the edge going to REVISIONIST who ran well in his debut.