Race Analysis for Friday, June 18

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: TLAQUEPAQUE comes out of a very live 2-year-old barn and he looked pretty sharp in his 4-furlong work on Sunday where he finished in front of LA BRONCA and not too far behind Chac Mool who was an easy winner here on May 22. He's by Suave who earned $1.3 million and is off to an excellent start as a win-early sire with a first, second and third from his first three starters. LOVE LOGIC earned a bullet for her 3-furlong move out of the gate May 30 and her trainer, who won two races on Sunday, can have them ready to go first time out. She is the first foal out of a mare that won three of six starts sprinting. GRIEVANCE is the only one with experience and figures to move forward in her second start. She had to steady slightly on the turn otherwise she might have finished a little closer first time out.

RACE TWO: LIZ'S BROOM and BEAULAH FAY dead-heated for second in their latest meeting and once again it is hard to separate them. We'll give the edge to LIZ'S BROOM who figures to move forward in her second start of the year. She reeled off four straight wins here last year and with her good tactical speed she should get a nice trip from just off of BEAULAH FAY, who looks like the best speed. BEAULAH FAY also figures to move forward here. She probably didn't get too much out of her first couple of starts but after running hard the whole way in her latest she could be ready to take a big step forward. She also drew the rail and she has plenty of speed to take advantage of her inside post. MUD SWEAT 'N TEARS steps up following her win over cheaper non-winners of the year and the horse she beat came right back to win. Don’t sell her short.

RACE THREE: ALYBYE ON FIRE dueled with the odds-on winner through very fast fractions before tiring in the last sixteenth for twice this price and he appears to have enough speed to clear this group early. If he does, could take them all the way. I'M JUST A GUY debuted in the same race and he made a nice move from off the pace to finish second. It wouldn't be surprising to see Alvarado be a bit more aggressive here and it will be interesting to see how he holds up if he has to battle with ALYBYE ON FIRE the whole way. RETRIGGER ran a much improved race when he dropped to this level for his latest could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. DOUBLIN THE GOLD showed signs of life going 3 ½ furlongs last Friday and it came on the heels of a sharp work. He could be ready for a big effort coming back this quickly.

RACE FOUR: SUNDAY MISS has run well in both of her sprints at the meet and now she stretches out to her best distance. She should also get a nice trip off of speed that has to be a little suspect going this far the first time. Her tactical speed could give her the edge over NITE TIME NEWS who figures to be coming late. NITE TIME NEWS closed with good speed to finish second at this level in his latest sprint and she will certainly appreciate the added yardage. She has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance but all those minor awards and just a single win from 25 starts makes it hard to accept what figures to be a short price. SAINTSBURY stretches out for the first time and the lightly raced 3-year-old is a half-sister to Napa who won going long and placed in the B.C. Oaks when it was a Grade 3 race. She is the one they will be chasing and over the past five years Condilenios is 13 percent with horses stretching out for the first time.

RACE FIVE: WHATCHADOINTODAY has been right there in both of his races versus pricier maidens this year and could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. He is also cutting his price in half and with his good speed he can either take them all the way or stalk. PARTY PROSPECTOR may have come back a little soon following his good debut and then couldn't keep up in a quickly run abbreviated sprint when he ran on Lasix for the first time. He should appreciate the move back to a two-turn sprint and could improve as a second time Lasix user. SUE'S BOY SUE made a strong late move in his first start this year and could take a big step with forward in his second start following a long layoff. There is also a good chance the speed will be coming back to him. FORCE THE ISSUE ran a much better race in his latest and could be worth a look at what figures to be a decent price.

RACE SIX: COLONDELIVERY should appreciate what figures to be a hotly contested pace and could get up in time to notch his second straight win. He has never won back to back races in his 76-race career but he has strung together sets of solid races versus much tougher and this should set up nicely for him. SLICKSTER and AFLEET MAC both have good speed and it is hard to see either of them getting away alone. SLICKSTER has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in the field, so we'll give him the edge, but he probably won't be able to post the same kind of figure under what figures to be considerable pressure. CIELO'S LAD ran a big race coming off the bench last year and he looked pretty sharp in his half-mile move June 10. He'll also appreciate the likely duel up front. FRASERVIEW figures to move forward in his second start of the year and at the very least should be included in the exotics.

RACE SEVEN: VINTNER finished behind GREAT PRINCE last time but he was making just his second start of the year and he could take a big step forward in his second straight route. He also drops a couple of pounds and GREAT PRINCE picks up four so there is a significant shift in the weights. GREAT PRINCE is on a roll right now and is clearly the one to beat. His sharp half-mile move last Sunday is another strong sign that he is currently on top of his game. LUCKY ON THE RIVER has been very sharp since arriving here this spring and goes for his third win in a row. He has never gone this far before and none of his four siblings to race have won going long. He did run well both times he went a flat mile and with his good tactical speed he figures to get a nice trip from either a stalking position or possibly on the lead.

RACE EIGHT: ALITAX flashed good speed when and then held on well to just miss when she debuted for twice the price on May 23. Blinkers go on and if she can keep a straight course she should be tough to handle. Not sure why she pulled herself up when they tried to work her 5-furlongs last Sunday but the blinkers go on and we'll assume her sharp trainer will have whatever was bothering her worked out before she runs. CRIMSON QUEEN made a strong late move to just miss in her first try at an abbreviated sprint and could be dangerous if she leaves there a little quicker this time. ERIN'S PENNY doesn't have the kind of speed it takes to win this type of race but she has finished well in both of her starts and could get up in time to pick up a slice. CALL ME R N could be the sleeper. She didn't show a lot in her debut but she came back to work a sharp half-mile out of the gate and blinkers are going on.