Race Analysis for Saturday, June 19

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: MINSTREL'S TIME came back with three solid five-furlong moves following his encouraging debut and looks well prepared to stretch out to six-furlongs. His trainer has strong stats with maidens making their second start and the addition of Lasix is another plus. HORNBLOWER ran evenly when he debuted going 3 1/2 furlongs and should improve with the added distance. He is a half-brother to $487K Grade 2 winner Spice Island and $177K seven-time winner Big League, so the breeding is certainly there. MISTY MEMORY ran well to finish second in a quickly run race when she debuted May 22 and came back with a decent interim move. She is a filly facing boys but she does have the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and her trainer does a good job with his babies.

RACE TWO: FINALITY PHILLY chased a fast pace before fading in her first start this year and she is taking the biggest drop of all from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. She appears to have enough speed to clear early and if she does break alertly she could be gone. SUMKINDAFUN may have bounced off in her latest and it wouldn't be surprising to see her rebound with a better effort here. She also acted up in the starting gate and had a wide trip in her latest so it is easy to throw the race out. She moves inside and if she runs as well as she did in her previous race at the meet she should be right there. STOLE AGAIN debuts or a trainer that can have them ready to go first time out and that was a pretty nice five-furlong move last Sunday. She is by a 12 percent debut sire and all five of her siblings are winners including multiple stakes winner Stole One and $217K stakes placed Stole Another.

RACE THREE: CLEAR TO CANADA ran into a pretty tough horse at Emerald Downs when he finished third in the Auburn and this certainly looks like an easier spot. The winner, Posse Power, placed in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. If CLEAR TO CANADA takes after his half-sister Northern Ayne, who won four route races, he should get the distance. On the other hand, his half-brother El Sinaloense is strictly a sprinter. PASSION RED posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure when he won his debut going six and one-half furlongs and could take them a long way if he breaks alertly from his inside post. No route winning siblings to report, however. LADNER LAD ran a much improved race in his latest and should be able to stalk PASSION RED. Hard not to notice that Alvarado abandons him to ride PASSION RED, though. TEXAS BUCCANEER could make some noise from off the pace.

RACE FOUR: QUICK FIX went very wide around both turns and still managed to close with good speed to just miss in a similar race June 5. He also showed a new dimension by coming from off the pace for the first time and could be coming up to a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle. CAN'T WAIT FOREVER drops to a new low and he appears to have enough speed to clear early. He faded after forcing a quick pace in his latest but the fractions should be slower here and he could take them all the way if he gets away on his own. SARATOGA PASS has some speed, though, and could put enough pressure on him to set up the top pick. SARATOGA PASS has been right there in his last three starts at this level and once again figures to be in the mix right from the start. WHIPSTITCH also had a wide trip in his latest and could make some noise from off the pace if he can save a bit more ground this time.

RACE FIVE: VINTAGE VINO couldn't keep up with wicked fractions in her second start this year but they won't be going nearly as fast here and she should be involved right from the start. Focus on her initial start versus tougher this year and she looks like the one to beat. RED CARPET took a lot of support but broke slowly when she debuted at this level May 30. She has worked sharply since and it wouldn't be surprising to see her take a big step forward in her second start for a trainer who has solid stats in the category. SMITTY'S GAL has been working decently for a trainer that can have them ready to go first time out and the barn's main rider is attracted. ROUTE NINETY SEVEN has been very consistent in all of her races going 3 1/2 furlongs and has enough speed to make good use of her inside post. Her five-furlong works have been decent as well, so the added distance shouldn't be an issue.

RACE SIX: MOSEL RIVER ran a big race when he stretched out for the first time and could take a big step forward in his second try going around three-turns. He will have to deal with other speed in the way of RETRIGGER but he's lightly raced and it is hard to say if he needs to be in front to win or not. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt. EXCITED LAD has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in all of his races this year and being a half-brother to $170K route stakes winner Excited Miss he should appreciate the added yardage. SMART CALL made a strong late move to just miss at a big price in the same race MOSEL RIVER exits and there could be an honest pace for him to work with here. RETRIGGER has speed, gets in light, and ran a much improved race in his latest. He could be dangerous if he clears early.

RACE SEVEN: GUNS N GOLD came back with two sharp works following his initial start of the year where he ran an even race. He figures to move forward with a race under his belt and both his trainer and jockey have heated up lately. He could be the winner of what appears to be a wide-open event. TENOCH drops back to the level he won at two back and they were going pretty fast up front in his latest so it is easy to forgive him for not keeping up late. He shouldn't have to go as fast here and if he can avoid a duel with MACONDO he should be right there at the finish. VICTORY CLAP has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and doesn't look out of line in his first try with winners. He also figures to get a nice trip from a stalking position. SAY FABULOUS has had a couple of decent interim works since he finished second to TENOCH and the only concern is the possible wide trip from his outside post.

RACE EIGHT: MAJESTICALITY hasn't run back to his encouraging debut but he may have bounced in his second start and at least he tried to run with Burj Dubai for a half-mile in his latest. This is a much easier spot and with a sharp half-mile showing he could rebound with a big effort. VYING FOR GLORY looked like he might be finished after dropping back just past the quarter-pole but he rallied late to just miss when he dropped to this level in his second start. He came back with a sharp half-mile move and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he's the winner. REVISIONIST and POW have both been working well enough for a trainer that has decent stats with first time starters in maiden claiming races - 25 percent over the past five years. GOBAL WARMING adds Lasix after being claimed for $20,000 out of his debut where he ran a very good race to finish second. This is a much tougher spot but he figures to improve and should be considered for the exotics.