Race Analysis for Sunday, May 16

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: QUILLO'S INTENTION could be a sucker play because she has had a lot of chances to get her second win. Nonetheless, she just missed at this level in her latest and she got pushed out pretty wide coming out of the turn by the winner. She's been stakes placed a couple of times and if she takes the expected move forward in her second start she should be right there again. DHARMA QUEEN is fast and her bullet 4-furlong move on May 2 is a good sign that she is ready for a big effort coming off the bench. She has never gone this far before and she did give up a 2-length lead going 3 1/2 furlongs, so not completely sure she'll be able to carry her speed all the way. REDNECK LEGEND romped in her only start exactly a year ago and has worked well enough for her return for a trainer that can have them ready to go coming off of this kind of layoff - 16 percent over the past five years.

RACE TWO: LADNER LAD won the only time he was up for sale and he drops into a claiming race following an even effort versus much tougher. Ascot Graduation winner Dyna Stroll only beat him by a half-length in the Jack Diamond Futurity and he showed enough in his initial start this year that he could be up to handling these with a clean trip from his outside post. RIGHT MARKER finished behind STORM ABOVE when they met in a similar race but the pace should be a lot quicker with PRIVATE JETTZ in the field and that could work in RIGHT MARKER'S favor. STORM ABOVE will probably be favored off of his solid second at this level and he is one of the two horses with more than a single win. They figure to be winging it up front this time and he could have a hard time lasting all the way if an all out duel does develop.

RACE THREE: VINTAGE VINO may have tipped her hand with a sharp half-mile move on May 12 and her trainer doesn't usually work them that fast. She didn't show much when she debuted last year but her connections must have liked her a bit because they tossed her in with maiden special weight company. She could be live in a race where it is hard to take a firm stand on any of them. LA NORIA is the obvious horse off of her races last year and she probably needed her first start this season. She came back with a decent interim work and in this case it is a good sign that her trainer is moving her up in price. TICKLEMETERRELLMO ran okay when she debuted going 3 1/2 furlongs last year and her latest work was decent. The barn's main rider lands on ONLYTHEBESTFORYOO, however. ONLYTHEBESTFORYOO comes out of a barn that can have them ready to first time out and is certainly playable with Perez accepting the mount.

RACE FOUR: MAXIMIANO has posted back to back 5-furlong moves in :59 and change and he appears to be primed for a big effort in his first start this year. He is just a head and a neck away from being undefeated in four starts and he also has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post. Barn is also firing on all cylinders right now. BOUNDLESS CAT hasn't lived up to the potential he displayed in his debut but he can obviously fire fresh and he has also looked sharp this spring. He won't mind what figures to be a lively pace and it wouldn't be surprising if things went his way. CHEROKEE NOTION earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure for his win over Sage Gold in a maiden special weight race May 2 and being a lightly raced 3-year-old he should have more upside than most of the ones he's facing. If he can rate, he has a shot. If not, he's going to get hung out pretty wide with all the speed drawn inside of him.

RACE FIVE: FINAL PLEASURE got forced out pretty wide heading into the first turn and then made a nice late move in her initial start this year. She moves to the rail where she should be a lot closer during the early stages and she is certainly going to save a lot of valuable ground. SAINTSBURY cuts her price in half following an even effort opening day. She would look a lot better with an interim work showing but she's in good hands and she will appreciate the easier company. MY BLACK PEARL took a big step forward in her latest and could be dangerous if she can avoid a wide trip from her outside post. There doesn't appear to be a lot of other obvious speed in the field so there is a good chance she'll be able to clear early. If she does, they may not catch her. J J'S ORCHID didn't show much in her debut but she has been working decently and might be better than she looks.

RACE SIX: LOCKSMITH showed good speed before tiring when he ran for twice the price in his initial start this year and we can expect him to move forward in his second start following a layoff for a trainer that is 23 percent in the category over the past five years. BRYMIC'S GEM has been working well enough this spring and could make some noise in his first start for a trainer that has strong stats with horses moving to his barn. It is also encouraging to see the leading rider take the call. GUNS N GOLD won the only time he ran for a tag and he appears to be well prepped for his 3-year-old debut. TERRELL ME A STORY was an easy winner when he debuted for this price going 3 1/2 furlongs last year and he has plenty of works showing so he should be fit enough. Lasix is added and he is certainly playable in what appears to be a wide-open event.

RACE SEVEN: INCLUDE THE GRAND came back with a bullet 4-furlong move in :46.20 seconds following her decent effort behind Concert Music who remained undefeated when she won the Brighouse Belles in her next start. She should find these easier and will be very tough to catch if she can get the jump on the other speed. SMOKIN DANIELLE has plenty of speed, drew the rail, and attracts the leading rider. She has never won coming off of a layoff but she has run decent races coming off the bench and she hits pretty hard at this level. AGAINST THE SKY is clearly the class of the field but she is a much better horse going longer and could have a hard time getting up in time. DAYMAKER could be dangerous from off the pace if an all out duel develops up front.

RACE EIGHT: DRAFTING FOR SPEED had to steady a couple of times and had to wait for room before she could make her move when she just got beat in a similar race May 2. There doesn't appear to be a lot of other speed in the field and she could be long gone if she clears early. VELOCITRON lost ground on both turns and still ran a big race to finish third in the same race the top pick exits. Her lack of sprint speed isn't going to help her here and both of her wins came going longer. Nonetheless, that was a pretty solid effort and she shouldn't have to go as wide this time. VYING STAR has some tactical speed and figures to move forward with a race and an interim work under her belt. BEULAH LAND wants more distance but she has looked sharp this spring and could get up in time to pick up a slice. Consider using her in the exotics.