Race Analysis - Saturday, May 22

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: PRIVATE INTENTION tired after chasing the pace while going 3-wide the whole way in his initial start this year and figures to take a big step forward here. He also drew the rail and it is likely Gutierrez will put him right on the lead. A couple of his siblings have won going long and he should get plenty of stamina from his sire. MOONCORE didn't have any obvious excuses in his latest but at least he's had a couple of races this year and should be fit enough to go this far. His dam earned $144K and she compiled a 2-4-3 record from 19 starts going a route so there is a good chance he'll get the distance. SLEW'S PRODIGY should be fit enough off of a solid set of works and he ran well going this far last year. He does have to pack a hefty 124 pounds in his first start this year so it wouldn't be surprising if he struggles a bit late in his first start since last Oct., however.

RACE TWO: NEZAHUALCOYOTL, you say it, has looked sharp in his works and his trainer is certainly capable of having a 2-year-old ready to go first time out. His stablemate, CHAM MOOL, actually has better win early breeding. Nonetheless, Alvarado, who does a lot of work for the barn, lands here and he usually gets to pick the one he wants to ride. TIMEFORACOLDONE has worked sharply for a trainer that has solid stats with first time starters. His dam won two of her three races at two including a stakes race. GRIEVANCE has had a couple of decent works out of the gate and her trainer won the first 2-year-old race of the season so we know she's been well schooled. MISTY MEMORY is the first starter by Quiet Cash who was a very good horse going short and long. Works are solid and his trainer does a good job with his babies.

RACE THREE: TAMARINDA figures to move forward in her second start and if she does she will be tough to handle. She has the best speed, plenty of class, and if she breaks alertly from her inside post she should be gone. YOOROCK GAL scratched out of a tougher spot on Friday to run here and she finished just behind the top pick in her latest. She could pick up the pieces if an all out duel develops between the top pick and QUICKENS. She hasn't won since July of 2008, however, and looks a lot better underneath than on top. QUICKENS ran a big race in her latest win for $7,500 and has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in the field. The pace is going to be a lot faster here and it is hard to see her winning a duel with TAMARINDA, though. MIA DOLCE finished just behind QUICKENS in her latest and was claimed by the same connections that won three straight races with her last year. Consider her for the exotics.

RACE FOUR: DEVIL'S ATTIRE fell on his head coming out of the gate and then made a strong move to finish a close third at this level in his initial start of the year. The barn's main rider takes the call, there is a decent interim work on display, and if he gets away cleanly he is going to be very tough to beat. SARATOGA PASS made a premature move while going 4-wide around the stretch turn and after making the lead at the top of the stretch he held on well to finish second in a similar race. There doesn't appear to be a lot of confirmed speed in the field so it wouldn't be surprising to see him on or near the lead and he could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle. HUNTSMASTER had to alter course in the stretch or he might have finished in front of SARATOGA PASS last time, He did save a lot of ground around the turn while SARATOGA PASS went 4-wide however.

RACE FIVE: MAGIC THUNDER takes a significant drop for this and if she can regain the form she showed last year she could be the one in a wide open event. She did make a bit of a late move in her latest so it is possible she's coming up to a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. At the least, she is going to find these a lot easier than she's been facing. SLAP YOU SILLY was forced out on the first turn by AGAMEONE who finished in front of her in a bottom level maiden race on May 9. SLAP YOU SILLY moves closer to the rail and could have the advantage with AGAMEONE moving to an outside post. DAKIND should be able to clear early and possibly take them a long way. She gets in light and there just doesn't seem to be any other speed in the field so she could get brave.

RACE SIX: POSSE R N has been off since she finished third in a $40K maiden race at the Fairgrounds in Dec. but she has worked well enough for a trainer that can have them ready to go coming off of this kind of layoff. No next out winners in her last race but a few have won subsequent races including the second place finisher who won a $50K maiden race at Churchill Downs in her second start back. P. S. TOUCH DOWN was good enough to win a race last year but had her number taken down. She has been working sharply for her 3-year-old debut and could be live coming off the bench. MALIGNE LAKE and TERLANI have both looked sharp in their works leading up to their debuts and it wouldn't be surprising if they both made some noise first time out. SNOWBIRD PASS closed out 2009 with a strong effort and has been working well leading up to her return.

RACE SEVEN: ZIP THE STORM couldn't keep up in a quickly run race for $12,500 non-winners of two but he'll appreciate the company he's facing here and should be hard to handle if he leaves there running. SOLIDAGO never really got involved in the same race but his initial start this year was decent and the barn's main rider is attracted. No surprise if he rebounds with a much better effort and he is also going to appreciate the easier company. DESERT ALF had to have needed his first start in almost two years and it is possible he'll take a big step forward in his second start back. Nice to see the interim move and he does have plenty of back class. WHIPSTITCH has looked sharp this spring and could be an improved horse as a 4-year-old.

RACE EIGHT: STORY'S END forced an honest pace before tiring to finish third when he debuted for this price May 2. He also had a little trouble handling the first turn so he is still going through the learning process. He came back to work a very sharp 4-furlongs in :46.40 seconds and should be set for a big effort in just his second start. OVERTIME MAGIC also ran a little greenly when he debuted in a $20K maiden race May 8, and he's certainly eligible to move forward enough to beat the top pick. He seemed to get lost going down the backstretch and then made a big move while going very wide around the stretch turn. He's a half-brother to $163K stakes placed Tabadabado so there is some breeding potential. I'M FAMOUS also made a strong late move to finish just in front of OVERTIME MAGIC in his debut. He's another possibility in what appears to be a wide open event.