Race Analysis - Sunday, May 23

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: NORTHERN POINTE had worked sharply leading up to his much improved performance in his initial start this year and could make it two in a row with a similar performance. He is back with 3-year-olds only, the extra sixteenth won't hurt and he is the only horse in the race with more than a single win. It could also set up pretty nicely for him as well. SAY FABULOUS posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure for his win over bottom level maidens and has a right to improve in his second start following a long layoff. TENOCH forced the issue while going 3-wide in NORTHERN POINTE'S race and then held on reasonably well. He looks like the best speed here and he could be ready for a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle.

RACE TWO: SAGE GOLD posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure for his second place finish in his first start this year and he should be tough to handle if he can come close to putting up a similar number here. He came back with a sharp half-mile move on May 18 so we'll assume he is ready for another strong effort. HONEY'S MONARCH ran a much improved race in his initial start as a 3-year-old and could continue his improvement here. The breeding is certainly there. His sire won the Kentucky Derby and his stakes placed dam earned $107,590. Siblings include $410K earner Honey Green and $208K stakes placed Think Fast. SIMPLY SAM has been right there in just about every start and the horse he lost to by a neck in a $20K maiden race April 25 came back to win a $25K claiming race with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He has been in hunt at this level in the past so the jump in class shouldn't be a big issue.

RACE THREE: JUMP PASS drops into a conditional claimer for the first time and he is going to appreciate the much easier company. He didn't get beat by all that much when he faced a very tough group of open claimers in his latest and he figures to get a nice trip from not to far off of what should be an honest and contested pace. CAN'T WAIT FOREVER will likely be one of the ones involved early and he should be fit enough with two solid six-furlong moves showing. He also runs well fresh and owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field. SUPER STEVE just missed at this level in his initial start this year and that was a very fast race he finished third in. He's reunited with Perez who will likely put him in a striking position early.

RACE FOUR: JUDICIAL COMMITTEE spotted the field quite a few lengths when she broke flat footed in her debut. She was full of run from the quarter-pole home, though, and if she can leave there a little better she'll be tough to handle. SHELBYANN is back with maidens after a solid effort with winners and the horse that finished second came right back to win for the same condition. She should appreciate what figures to be easier company and the only concern is all of those minor awards showing. ALITAX looked pretty sharp when she earned a bullet for her 4-furlong move in :46.20 seconds over a track rated good on May 19. She is by a below average debut sire and she is the first foal out of an unraced mare. MacPherson is on fire at the meet and while his recent numbers with first time starters aren't that great, over the past 5-years he is 19 percent with horses making their debuts in maiden claiming races. Perez attracted and notice the strong jockey-trainer numbers showing.

RACE FIVE: STREET PATROL broke well enough but couldn't keep up to the very fast fractions they set when he faced tougher in his initial start this year. He was also leaving from the 11-hole and it isn't easy winning from that post going 6-furlongs. He moves inside for this, the fractions won't be nearly as fast, and if he breaks sharply he should be prominent right from the start. FISH ON FRIDAY ran a huge race to just miss at this level when he debuted on May 9 he figures to move forward in just his second start. Not surprisingly Mosqueira sticks with STREET PATROL, but no complaints with the new Perez taking over. NORTHERN INTENT didn’t have the best trip when he finished third at this level and is certainly a threat to win it all. He broke in the air and then had to briefly wait for room when he was making a strong move around the stretch turn. After all that, he closed with good speed to finish a clear third.

RACE SIX: EPICUREAN cuts her price in half following a decent third in her initial start this year and a similar effort puts her right there with this group of $10K maidens. She also figures to move forward for a trainer that has solid stats with horses making their second start following a layoff. DIVA BALLERINA is also taking a large drop after splitting the field in a relatively quick race for $25K maidens. She'll find these more to her liking and it is encouraging to see the easy interim breeze. BELLA AVIVA finished just behind EPICUREAN in her seasonal debut and is certainly eligible to move forward enough to win what appears to be a competitive event. LINDEN'S LADY gets in light, should be able to clear early, and could easily take them the whole way.

RACE SEVEN: PAT'S BID is doubling her price but she looked good winning her latest and she was stakes placed as a 2-year-old last year. She can also stalk what figures to be a quick and contested pace. OH SO NOTISED forced a fast pace and then held on well to finish a close third at this level and from the looks of her very sharp 5-furlong move in :58.80 seconds May 15 she came out of the race in excellent shape. Her outside post could be an issue with all of the potential speed in the field. The same goes for RED MOLLY who was very impressive winning a $20K maiden race at 3 1/2 furlongs. She earned bullets for two subsequent six-furlong works so the added distance doesn't figure to be an issue. All of the other speed could be, though. INDY BEAUTY should appreciate the lively pace and could make some noise from off the pace at what could be a decent price.

RACE EIGHT: VICTORY CLAP took a big step forward in his second start and could be set for a peak effort in just the third start of his career. He easily has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and he continues to improve he'll be tough to beat. ABERFELDIE chased a fast pace and then tired when he debuted in the same race VICTORY CLAP exits and he could be the one they are chasing with the blinkers going on. Notice the strong second start stats for the trainer and also when they wear blinkers for the first time. LEGO MAN is also eligible to improve off of his initial start this year, a third in the common race. He came back with a solid half-mile work May 18 and this will be his second time going around two turns. He ran solid races in both of his starts going 3 1/2 furlongs last year as well.