Race Analysis for Monday, October 11

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: QUATRE DAMES was a clear winner but had her number taken down for causing interference at the half-mile pole when she dropped to this level in her latest and should be tough to handle if she keeps a clear path. She came back with a soldid five-furlong move Oct. 3 and once again she gets in with a feather. Either of her two starts at the distance would easily win this. REGAL SPICE ran evenly in both of her sprints and adds blinkers for her first route. Over the past five years her trainer has a 21 percent strike rate with horses stretching out for the first time and with just a couple of starts behind her there could be plenty of upside potential. NEW MOON ADVANTAGE ran an even race in her only route attempt and might be ready for an improved effort in the third start of her current form cycle.

RACE TWO: CALL ME JEWEL came from well back to just miss at this level in her latest and once again she should have an honest pace to work with. With her late running style the outside post could also work in her favor. SWAPALADY looked good winning a $5,000 maiden race Oct. 2 and with her good tactical speed she figures to get a nice trip from must off of what should be a lively pace. She owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and might be good enough to handle winners in her first try. ALITAX was forced out on the first turn and then had to steady when the winner came out going down the backstretch in the same race CALL ME JEWEL exits. She has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post and could be right there with a clean trip. DRAMATIC CODE should appreciate the move back to a sprint.

RACE THREE: SEE L. A. ran an improved race when she came back from a six-week layoff and should get a similar type of stalking trip behind what should be a contested pace. She is certainly a bounce candidate coming back this quickly but it is also possible she'll move forward. If she does she should win this. J J'S WANDER just can't seem to get over the top but she has been part of the tri in six straight races and once again figures to be involved right from the start. She should be part of any exotics ticket but with other speed in the field she looks a lot better underneath than on top. BEAUTY AND VICTORY is the wild card. She showed some potential when she made a late run in her debut with maiden special weight company April 24 but then trailed the field when she came back to run in a $20K maiden race four months later. She will appreciate the much easier company but over the past five years her trainer has a seven percent strike rate when he drops them by 50 percent or more.

RACE FOUR: FOREST PRINCE may not have cared for a track a lot of horses had a hard time getting a hold of in his second start back from a layoff. He could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle and he has run well from a stalking position in the past so it wouldn't be surprising to see him sit just off of what figures to be a lively pace. DISTORTED GLAMOUR may have bounced following his big effort in the PNE Presidents Speed and he also might not have cared for a track a lot of horses were slipping and sliding over. Only one way of going here and if he does clear he could be tough to catch. Not sure that is going to happen, however. Along with the top two, SEMINOLE BRAVE is taking a drop in class and could be dangerous from a stalking position. SOLDIERS RETURN has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and should be heard from late.

RACE FIVE: GUNS N GOLD finished full of run in his last two sprints and should have an honest pace to work with here. He hasn't won going this far but he has come close and he has changed his running style since the last time he went around three turns. VICTORY CLAP ran into a tough one in back to back races and he could get a nice trip from just off of what figures to be a pretty lively pace. His worse finish in four tries at the distance is his third in his latest and at the least he should be part of any exotics ticket. MACONDO isn't the most consistent horse around but he won't mind the move back to a route after failing as the chalk in his latest. There is a lot of other speed but he has won from a stalking position and if Alvarado can get him to settle early he could be dangerous late.

RACE SIX: RAISING MEMO is one of the more obvious choices on the card. He came off of a layoff to win for $5,000 and now he drops in price for his second start back. He showed more speed than usual in his win and he figures to get a perfect stalking trip from just off what should be a lively pace. He'll be tough to beat. ARRIVEE ARRIVEE comes out of the same race and he forced the issue before tiring late. He is versatile so he might sit off of suspect speed and it won't hurt having Baze picking up the mount from Hamel who abandons him to ride a very live looking EVALUATE. EVALUATE will be shooting for his third win in his fourth start at the meet and he looked good beating ARRIVEE ARRIVEE in his last start on Sept. 19. He has only missed being part of the exacta in one of his six starts here so he should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE SEVEN: LOVE LOGIC should be set up perfectly for the cut back to a sprint after forcing wicked fractions in the 1 1/16 miles Fantasy. Baze is attracted and she could be hard to catch if she breaks on top. VICTORY WITH CLASS has shown plenty of class in her three starts and her only loss came at the hands of a very tough Overvalued. She wasn't eligible to the Fantasy which could give her a bit of an advantage if some of the ones she is facing find coming back this quickly and shortening up to a sprint too taxing. She also looked pretty sharp in her six-furlong move Oct. 3 and she easily handled the main players when they all met in the B.C. Cup Debutante. PIGTAILS couldn't have been set up any better in the Fantasy and might find it hard to make up the same type of ground with the move back to a sprint. They will be winging it up front, however, and it wouldn't be a big surprise if she did get up in time.

RACE EIGHT: STORMY CANUCK ran a huge race to finish second in the Ascot in just his second career start and should be tough to handle with the move back to a sprint. He was a game winner over CTHS Sales Stakes winner OUTOFTHECLOUDS in his debut and he appears to be versatile so he should be able to stalk what figures be an honest pace. TOO MUCH DIRT improved dramatically when he stretched out to a middle distance in the Ascot and he should have an honest pace to work with. Baze must have liked him to make the return trip and the only concern is the potential for trouble in a full field with his running style. LOOKOUT DUBAI should appreciate the move back to a sprint after forcing the issue and tiring in the Ascot. He'll have to be on his toes to avoid a wide trip from his outside post, however.

RACE NINE: MEAUX POWER was a convincing winner when he dropped to this level in his latest and a similar effort should be good enough. He came back with a solid five-furlong work last Wednesday and all systems appear to be go. JUMP PASS ran okay in both of his route races and then came back with two strong sprint races. He should be able to stalk what is going to be a lively battle up front and he might be able to pick up the pieces late. GREAT PRINCE finished full of run behind the top pick last time and he certainly won't mind what figures to be a lively pace if they all go. His uncoupled stablemate JOY OF THE LORD also looks pretty live stretching out to a distance he has won three of four at. ALERT N WISE is coming off of two front-running wins but could be under the gun with BRIARTIC COUNTY in the field.