Race Analysis for September 1

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: VICTORY'S SUITE came close to winning her debut at this level in June and from the looks of her bullet three-furlong move on Aug. 22 she should be ready for a big effort in her return. Her trainer also has an excellent record with 2-year-olds making their second start - 35 percent over the past five years. MATRICARIA is a full-brother to three juvenile winners including Infinite Wealth who won her debut and went on to earn over $100K. Snow can have them ready to roll first time out and it is encouraging to see that the leading rider is attracted. DRINKINGONTHEJOB ran an improved race in her latest and could make some noise with the blinkers going on.

RACE TWO: SIMPLY SAM showed his readiness with for his first start in just over a month with a bullet four-furlong move last week and he'll certainly appreciate the drop in class. He was also claimed out of his last start by a barn that over the past five years has a 24 percent strike rate when they run them back the first time. Sam also has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post. WHIPSTITCH keeps picking up slices and once again he should be part of any exotics ticket. He should get a nice trip from just off of what should be a contested pace and if Pacheco can find a way to save some ground he might be able to get up in time. CANUCK BUCK ran a good race when he came from a stalking position two back and then tired after forcing the issue early in his latest. He could be dangerous if Hamel can get him to relax early.

RACE THREE: KWIK may have bounced or it is possible he didn't care for the wet conditions when he flopped as the even-money favorite in his latest. He posted a career best Beyer Speed Figure for his easy win two back and if he gets an honest pace to work with he could rebound here. No guarantee he'll get the help he needs up front, however. BEAREMPIRE would have easily won the same race if he had left the gate with the rest of the field. That makes two races in a row he has dwelt, however, so it is a bit of a gamble heading in this direction. Nonetheless, if he does go off at a reasonable price it might be a gamble worth taking. BEALE STREET looks like the one they’ll have to catch and it wouldn't be a surprise if he took them the whole way in his second straight route. There also doesn't appear to be any other confirmed speed.

RACE FOUR: QUALIFIED didn't follow up his encouraging debut when he jumped up to try pricier maidens in his second start but he should find this group more to his liking. The substantial drop is a bit of a concern for a horse that has decent breeding and showed a lot of potential in his first start but Condilenios has a 20 percent strike rate with horses dropping by 50 percent or more over the past five years. BOSCO'S QWIK has closed with good speed after getting off to poor starts in both of his races and he could be dangerous if he leaves there running. In both races he was squeezed back between horses so maybe he'll have better luck leaving from the outside post. SIMILKAMEEN STORM has shown good speed in all three of his races going three and one-half furlongs and should be considered for the exotics in his first two-turn sprint. MAUDEST DANCER finished with good speed in his latest and could make some noise closing into what should be an honest pace.

RACE FIVE: ANDUCCI has been right there in his last two starts at this level and once again figures to be involved right from the start. He is also versatile enough that he can stalk if a lively pace does materialize. WINDY DAY has been part of the exacta in four of his seven starts this year and he was coming back a little sooner than his trainer wanted the only time he finished out of the tri. He sharpened up for this in his latest sprint and once again should be in the mix. He has been a beaten favorite in five of his last six starts so it makes sense to try and beat him. DUELLING PISTOL faded after chasing ANDUCCI in his latest but he's worked decently since and he is getting seven pounds off with Pacheco taking the call.

RACE SIX: CALL ME JEWEL easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and should appreciate the drop in class. She signaled her readiness with a sharp half-mile move on Sunday and it is encouraging to see Gutierrez, who has won with 29 percent of his mounts at the meet, accept the call. DUBAI DEBUTANTE is by a solid debut sire and her only sibling won first time out as a 2-year-old and went on to place in a couple of stakes to earn over $235K. Works are solid and the only concern is the barn doesn't usually have them fully cranked first time out - eight percent with maiden claimers debuting over the past five years. SPRING SOIREE couldn't catch the speed in her latest but she finished third despite going pretty wide all the way around the stretch turn. The horse that finished second came back to win at this level in her next start and at the very least she should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE SEVEN: OLAXSA wasn't much of a factor in his latest but he'll appreciate the substantial drop in class and if he runs his usual race he should be able to handle this group of bottom level non-winners of two. He hasn't been worse than third in five starts at the distance and the concerns are that he is still eligible for the condition after 19 starts and he added front wraps in his latest start. The easier company could be the cure he's looking for, however. VICTORY CLAP ran a big race to finish second when he stretched out for the first time and could take a big enough move forward to get over the top here. He also has decent tactical speed and should get a nice trip from a stalking position. AMBRATO is coming off of a good effort behind Victory Clap and he also came close to winning at this level three back. Others look more attractive on top but he should be considered for the exotics.

RACE EIGHT: TERRELL ME A STORY has been off for two months but he has worked well enough leading up to this and his trainer has decent enough stats with horses coming back in this time period - 14 percent over the past five years. All off his races this year look good enough to win here and it is encouraging to see the barn give the mount to their main rider. REVISIONIST posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure for his win over $20K maidens in his last start but it was a month ago and there haven't been any works since. Obviously he is in very good hands but he sure would look a lot better with just one breeze showing. STORM ABOVE has been right there in his last two sprints at this level and should have an honest pace to work with. There are some concerns with both of the top two picks so it wouldn't be a complete shock if he got up in time.