Race Analysis for September 10

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: WE ARE ONE figures to move forward in her second start back from a lengthy layoff and if she does she'll be tough to beat. She has enough tactical speed to be able to stay in touch with SNOWBIRD PASS and with the expected move forward she should be able to wear her down. SNOWBIRD PASS just missed the last time she sprinted for this price and she set hones fractions before fading when she stretched out for the first time. She should appreciate the move back to a sprint and nobody should be surprised if she does take them all the way. COATLICUE cuts her price in half, gets in light and certainly isn't out of her element here. The jockey and trainer have a solid record at the meet as well. DUBAI DEBUTANTE is by a good debut sire and her only sibling won her first two starts and has placed in a couple of stakes for earnings of $247K. Works are decent and the leading rider is attracted.

RACE TWO: DILWYN has shown more speed in his last couple of races and unless one of the first time starters has early lick he should be able to clear early and possibly take them all the way. He just missed in his latest and with two solid interim works he should be ready for another strong effort. CONSPIRACY THEORY ran a big race to finish second when he debuted for $10K and it is encouraging to see his connections double his price for his second start. Snow also has much better stats with second time starters than with horses making their debuts - 16 percent compared to seven over the past five years. DRIVING RANGE made a bit of a late move in his debut and should move forward in his second start. SMART SPENDING is a half-brother to $2.79 Grade 1 winner Lawyer Ron and his trainer can have them ready to go first time. The gap in his works between July 10 and Aug. 27 is a concern, plus the fact that he is starting his career for this price isn’t very encouraging.

RACE THREE: AIMING FOR GLORY has won his last two sprints and there should be an honest enough pace to set up his late move. He had a solid interim work Sept. 5 and note the recent stats the barn has with horses that have won their last start. ORCHID'S STORM got too far behind a moderate pace in his latest but they should be going faster up front here and he could make some noise from off the pace. He also may have bounced after posting one of the best Beyer Speed Figures in his career in his previous start. HUNTSMASTER shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint and he'll be making his first start for a trainer that has solid stats in the first time with trainer category.

RACE FOUR: ALYBYE ON FIRE goes for his third in a row and he hasn't been worse than second in his last six starts. He certainly won't mind the move back to a sprint and once again he figures to be involved right from the start. He is also dropping in price and figures to be tough to beat as a short-priced favorite. SHINY DICE should have an honest pace to work with and could get up in time to round out the exacta. Like the top pick, he has been a pretty reliable performer this year and at the very least he should be part of any exotics ticket. KANONKULE posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure when he won a $10K maiden race two back and he had a rough trip when he stretched out and faced winners for the first time in his latest. He came back with a sharp half-mile Sept. 6 and could be ready for a big effort with the move back to a sprint.

RACE FIVE: SUPER STEVE has been super sharp since coming back from a layoff and he is coming right back for the same price after winning both of his comeback races. Once again it looks like he'll either be right on the lead or sitting just off of it and he'll be tough to handle in his second straight route. JUMP PASS ran a big race when he stretched out for the first time in his career in the same race the top pick exits. Not sure if he'll move forward enough to beat a very sharp Super Steve but he could improve enough to round out the exacta. MONSTERINTHECLOSET hits pretty hard at this level and he just missed the last time he ran at this level going this distance. He ran an even race in his latest sprint and he'll certainly appreciate the drop in class and the longer distance.

RACE SIX: KWIK needs an honest pace to work with and he should get it with the speedy HUFFMAN in the field and BRIARTIC COUNTY stretching out for the first time in his career. He has been facing much tougher horses in his last few starts and the last time he ran for this price he was a winner. RALLYING CRY is stepping up in class but he has been right there in his last five starts and he won't mind what should be a lively pace. He was claimed out of his latest by a trainer who over the past five years has a 21 percent strike rate when he runs them back the first time. I WANNA GO FAST posted a decent Beyer Speed Figure the only time he went a middle distance and he figures to get a perfect trip from just off of speed that could be vulnerable going this far. HUFFMAN will be the one they are chasing and of course anything coming out of this barn deserves respect. Not sure he really wants to go this far, however.

RACE SEVEN: MAHATY JO may have needed her latest as it was her first route this year and she got a little tired late. She could be ready to take a big step forward in her second straight try going around three turns and she'll certainly appreciate the drop into what figures to be an easier spot. OUR COCO BEANS has been part of the tri in three of her four starts going this far and once again she gets in with a feather. She has good tactical speed and should get a good trip from a forward position. FOXY LIKE A CAT has given up clear leads in her last two starts going this far but once again she should be able to set or stalk a moderate pace and with a sharp half-mile move showing she might be able to regain the solid form she had last year. SARGENT SALLY didn't show much interest when she ran a dull race as the chalk in her latest but she could rebound here, especially if an honest pace develops.