Race Analysis for Sunday, September 19

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: GREAT PRINCE has been right there in his last seven races excluding his attempt with starter handicap horses and he's versatile enough that he can either stalk what could be a moderate pace or come from well back if a duel develops. MEAUX POWER drops to a level he should be more comfortable and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get back on track here. He will likely be one of the ones on or close to the lead. KALOOKAN BOSS is still looking of his first win at Hastings and he has done his best work on turf and synthetics. Nonetheless, this figures to be an easier spot for him and he won't mind the shorter distance. SUPER STEVE could be dangerous if he gets away on his own.

RACE TWO: TARUE GRIT has flashed decent speed in his last couple of two-turn sprints and may have tipped his hand with a very sharp five-furlong move in :59.40 seconds Sept. 14. He could be tough to handle if he breaks alertly in this abbreviated sprint. LUISINA ran a big race to finish first when she debuted in a $20K maiden race Sept. 19 but had her number taken down for interfering with a couple of horses on the turn. She could move forward enough in her second start to win this. DONT YOU HONEY ME has worked well enough for a trainer that can have them ready to go first time out. He is by a sire that is 3 for 13 with first time starting 2-year-olds and all six of his siblings are winners including $418K multiple-sprint winner Honey Green.

RACE THREE: SONGSROYALDIAMOND shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint following a good effort when went three wide most of the way before tiring late in her first try at a middle distance. She easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures in the field and should be tough to handle with a clean trip. MACLOGAN usually runs her race and while it probably won't be good enough to win here it should land her in the exotics and possibly the exacta. She has decent speed and should be able to put it to use leaving from the rail. CAPRIA CLASSIC has picked it up in her last couple of works and could be ready for a big effort at a big price with the blinkers coming off.

RACE FOUR: BEALE STREET battled through honest fractions and was still able to hold off the late move by BEAREMPIRE in his latest and could be tough to get past with Pacheco taking the call at 110 pounds. He can also stalk if the other possible speed, particularly FOXCREEK who is stretching out for the first time, is intent on the lead. SURPRISAL seems to improve this time of year and he will appreciate the much easier company after facing some pretty tough horses all year. His last win came exactly a year ago at a decent price and does own the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance so don't sell him short. BEAREMPIRE would have won his last two races but he dwelt the first time and then broke very slowly in his latest. He has the talent but do you want to accept what figures to be a short price on a horse that may or may not leave with the rest of the field?

RACE FIVE: SIMPLY SAM was a pretty easy winner when he dropped into a bottom level race for 3-year-olds in his latest and should be able to handle the slight jump in class. He appears to have enough speed to clear early and if he does he could be gone. ELUSIVE WAYS looked good getting his non-winners of two and then found open claimers beyond his scope. He fits better at this level and looks like the main threat from a stalking position. FISH ON FRIDAY came back with a sharp five-furlong move after finishing up the track when he faced a pretty tough group of starter horses going 1 3/8 miles in his latest. He's been freshened for this and shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint. He's also been a pretty reliable performer and his Beyer Speed Figures put him right in the mix.

RACE SIX: EVALUATE didn't have any noticeable excuses when he failed as the chalk in a similar race and he may have just bounced following his win following a long layoff. He is capable of stalking what figures to be a lively pace and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rebound from his dull effort. FURY'S ALLSTAR will be the one they are chasing and he almost took them the whole way in his last two starts at this level. He could be tough to catch if he clears early but there is other speed drawn to his inside and he could be under the gun right from the start. ARRIVEE ARRIVEE runs well fresh and has worked well enough leading up to his first start since he won a conditional claimer May 9. Over the past five years his trainer has an 18 percent strike rate with horses returning between 61 to 180 days.

RACE SEVEN: VYING TY GRR drops to a new low and should appreciate the move back to a sprint after setting fast fractions and fading in the 1 1/16 miles Hong Kong Jockey Club. She could get tag teamed by the Gilker pair but she has the speed and the class to handle the situation. AUDZEEZEE came from well back to win the last time she was in a sprint and we'll assume her stablemate, STORM VIXEN, will be trying to put early pressure on VYING TY GRR to help set her up. She is also dropping in class after finishing a distant second to the top 3-year-old filly at Northlands in the $50,000 Sonoma. PRINCESS RAINIER has crossed the line first in her last two starts but had her number taken down for taking out a couple of her rivals in her latest win. Nonetheless, it was another strong performance and she should get a nice stalking trip from just off of what figures to be a lively pace.

RACE EIGHT: RECALLED has made strong late moves to just miss in back to back races at this level and distance and with a couple of horses stretching out for the first time there should be an honest pace for her to close into. Pacheco abandons her to ride THAT'S HOW WE ROLL and she is picking up 10 pounds, nonetheless, the last time Perez rode her she won. THAT'S HOW WE ROLL will try the popular move of going to the lead with Pacheco carrying a feathery weight and see just how far she can go. So held on pretty well the only time she went this far and it wouldn't be surprising to see her take them the whole way today. She will have to deal with other speed, however. FINE AS FEATHERS posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure for her win over $10K maidens two back and was overmatched when she tried a tough group of $12,500 winners last time. She is a half-sister to a couple of route winners so she should handle the distance and she figures to get a cozy trip from her inside post.