Race Analysis for September 2

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE:   NORTHWAY is a half-brother to turf route stakes winner Leamington so he should get the distance. He is also dropping to a new low after running an even race against a solid group of $50K optional horses in his latest. Throw in the fact that he gets in light with Pacheco taking the call and he looks like the horse to beat. SNOWBIRD PASS is a half-brother to three route winners so he shouldn't mind the extra yardage. He appears to have the best speed in the field and he might be able to take them a long way. VYING FOR GLORY also has speed, drew the rail and comes out of a very live barn. He also has the pedigree to be successful going around three turns.

RACE TWO:  STOLENOTIS takes a substantial drop after not being able to keep up to some tough ones in his first three tries in maiden special weight races. The winners of his first two starts came right back to win stakes races and the winner of his latest finished a very good second in the New Westminster Stakes in his next start. He has worked sharply since he ran and he is going to appreciate the much easier company. MR. NORTH made up a lot of ground when he stretched out to a two-turn sprint in his second start and once again he should have an honest pace to work with. SNOW BULL was the only horse involved early in Mr. North's race that stayed around very long and he could make some noise with blinkers going on. KENTUCKY CLIPPER faded after forcing the pace while going three-wide early and could be dangerous as the inside speed in his second try going around two turns.

RACE THREE:  BREEZE'S STORM has been right there in his last two starts at this level and both horses that beat him came back to win their next start. He is versatile enough that he can either take them the whole way or stalk GOLD TICKET, who will likely be sent from his inside post. DARK VADER looked good winning his latest and from the looks of is bullet five-furlong move on Aug. 26 he's ready for another strong performance. He has enough back class to stand the jump in class and he is 3 for 3 running out of this barn. ELUSIVE WAYS also comes off of a sharp win and his connections thought enough of him to enter him for $17,500 Aug. 13. He was a vet scratch, however, and it would have been nice to see at least one work since then. Nonetheless, he is back in a more realistic spot and he has won his last two sprints.

RACE FOUR: ICECAP has had two solid five-furlong moves following her debut going 3 1/2 furlongs against maiden special weight company and she should appreciate both the added yardage and the easier company. Over the past five years Condilenios has a 14 percent strike rate with second time starters. He has also won with two of the last five 2-year-olds he has dropped into a maiden claiming race for their second start. AMAZING ROSE was ambitiously placed when she debuted in the B.C. Cup Debutante where she raced greenly and passed a few tiring horses in the stretch. She should move forward with a race behind her and her new trainer has her in a more realistic spot. Alvarado abandons the top pick to stick with her. NASCOPIE ran evenly to finish third in her debut at this level and could easily move forward enough to win what appears to be a wide-open event.

RACE FIVE:  SHELBYANN has been holding her own while facing open $7,500 claimers and she looks like a stand out over this field of $5,000 non-winners of two. She finished pretty far back in her latest but the winner romped by over six lengths. Her Beyer Speed Figures are by far the best in the field and Wilson figures to put her right on the lead from her inside post where she should be able to take them the whole way. RECALLED ran an improved race in her latest, gets in light, and could make some noise from off the pace. VINTAGE VINO adds blinkers and stretches out for a trainer who over the past five years has a 16 percent strike rate with horses going long for the first time. She is the first foal out of an unraced mare but she has a decent Tomlinson Figure for the distance and she's been running solid races in her sprints at this level.

RACE SIX:  ALITAX figures to move forward in her second straight two-turn sprint and she comes out of a pretty fast race. The horse that finished second came right back to win at this level with a 49 Beyer Speed Figure. It is also encouraging to see Perez stick with her when he had the option of riding a very live looking DRAMATIC CODE who looks like the main threat. DRAMATIC CODE broke sideways and then made a menacing move at the quarter pole before tiring when she debuted in a $20K maiden race Aug. 24. She figures to take a big step forward in her second start and she is certainly going to appreciate the easier company. RIN CHAN shouldn't mind the move back to a sprint after a good effort in her latest and should be considered for the exotics. SONGSROYALDIAMOND probably needed her latest and is another exotics possibility.

RACE SEVEN:  SEE EYE TO EYE has been a pretty steady performer over this track since she arrived here this spring and if you toss her try against stakes horses in the Strawberry Morn she has shown up to play every time. She ran into a tough one in her latest sprint and she won't mind the move back to a distance that she has compiled a solid 2-1-2 record from 6 starts. RAINBOWSINTHEWOOD has improved dramatically in her last three starts and is dropping into a straight claiming race following two solid efforts versus tougher. INCLUDE THE GRAND owns the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance but she has been running off in her last few races. If Alvarado can get her to settle early, she could be gone.

RACE EIGHT:  ORCHID'S STORM is stepping up but he looked pretty sharp winning his first start back from a layoff and he owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure. He could either bounce or move forward and since he held his form pretty well last year we'll guess it's the latter. RAINBOW DASH came back with a sharp half-mile move after finishing a close fourth at this level in his latest and once again figures to be in the mix. LATE NITE LARRY should be able to clear early and might be able to take them the whole way with the blinkers coming off. PEMBRIDGE and THAT'SMYRIVAL finished in front of RAINBOW DASH last time and either one could win what appears to be a wide-open event.