Race Analysis for September 3

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: HABERDASHER has shown good speed going longer and could be ready to roll coming off of a layoff. Condilenios has solid numbers with horses coming back in this time period and her last two works indicate she's ready for a big effort coming off the bench. DHARMA QUEEN should also appreciate the shorter distance and she did run three pretty good races going this far as a 2-year-old last year. POP is another one with very good speed and could be dangerous if she breaks alertly from her inside post. The bad news is that if she doesn't leave there running she is going to have a hard time finding clear running room.

RACE TWO: DANCEFOURSEVEN lost a little ground going around the stretch turn or she may have been a bit closer in her latest. She didn't get beat by that much and should be able to save some ground with the move to an inside post. She is stepping into open company but she has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and seems to be headed in a positive direction. EMMITT'S GIRL finished in front of the top pick two back and then didn't make much of an impact in a tougher spot. She'll appreciate the easier company and there should be enough speed to set up her good late move. BEAUTIFUL BREEZE finally got over the hump in her latest and could be dangerous stalking suspect speed. CAROLYN'S MONARCH is another possibility in what appears to be a wide-open event.

RACE THREE: CRASPEDIA has won both of his starts at the distance and he posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure for his latest win. He'll be tough to beat if he breaks alertly from his inside post and he usually leaves there running. AFLEET MAC finished second at this distance two back and he set honest fractions before giving in late when he went around two turns in his latest. He's had a sharp work since he ran and he looks primed for another strong effort. KINDA SPECIAL is the new kid on the block and he signaled his readiness with a brisk three-furlong move in :34.20 seconds Aug. 12. The price should be right so you might want to use him in the exotics. SANTANA WINDS was not match for the top pick but he has been part of the tri in all five of his starts this year and they all came at this distance. He should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE FOUR: DUTAMIS won three in a row before he stepped up to face stakes horses in the B.C. Cup Stellar's Jay and he should appreciate being back with claimers. He is also cutting back to a distance he has been very effective at. HAMPTON WICK just missed to the top pick the last time they met and then he dropped down to easily win his latest. He has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post and he is also versatile enough to stalk. FOXCREEK is a bit of a mystery. He scored an impressive win when he debuted for $17,500 in June but hasn't made it back to the races since. Works have been steady leading up to his return and it is encouraging to see him show up for a higher price. He also comes out of a very live barn so it would be no surprise if he was ready for another strong performance in his first try with winners.

RACE FIVE: SMITTY'S GAL posted a solid Beyer Speed Figure for her win over $5,000 maidens and might be good enough to handle winners the first time. She also ran well in her debut back in June and it wouldn't be surprising to see her take a big step forward coming back in a more reasonable time period. ANNADU forced a fast pace and after taking a two-length lead into the stretch she held on well to finish second in a similar race. If she clears early she could be gone. TWOBIT'N BILLIE should appreciate the move back to a sprint and it is interesting to see Alvarado abandon the top pick to land here. She already has won a race at this level this year and she is the only horse in the field with more than a single win so he just might have made the correct choice.

RACE SIX: ROYAL BANNER figures to appreciate the shorter distance and the much easier company he'll be facing with the drop to bottoms. He has flashed decent speed in his last two versus much tougher and should be hard to handle if he leaves there running in this abbreviated sprint. DEVIL'S SONG is by a sire that is 15 percent with first time starters and he is out of a mare that won 11 sprints. His three sibs are all winners including a full brother who won his debut at two and went on to earn over $200K. He worked a sharp three furlongs out of the gate in July and could be ready for a big effort first time out. GRACEFUL CAPTAIN showed more speed in his latest and shouldn’t mind the shorter distance.

RACE SEVEN: There appears be plenty of speed in the field and it could set up nicely for CANDY KING who is coming off a much improved effort in his latest. He also followed up his strong performance with a sharp five-furlong move Aug. 29 and this could set up perfectly for him. There are some obvious issues with the likely favorites and this guy is certainly worth a look at what could be a decent price. BAD SNEAKERS gave it up pretty early in his latest but he was facing much tougher and he was claimed back by a trainer that had a lot of success with him last year. The barn's main rider gets the call and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rebound with a much better effort. CLASSIC IDEALS is also coming off of a dull effort but he was also facing tougher and should be more comfortable at this level.

RACE EIGHT: DESTINY'S HOME ran into a tough one when she stretched out for her latest and she also got off to a poor start so it wasn't surprising she faded after making the lead early. She'll appreciate the easier company and she certainly won't mind the move back to a sprint. She usually runs well fresh and with two decent interim works showing she appears to be ready for a decent effort coming off the bench. REMARKABLY FREE sheds some weight and could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. She improved quite a bit in her second start this year and she could be tough to catch if she clears early. TRIPULINA RIDGE takes the drop for her second start back from a long layoff and could make some noise from off the pace. GRAYROSS GAL also figures to move forward in her second start back and is more than capable of winning this if she brings her best stuff.