Race Analysis - Sunday, July 3

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: MAUDEST DANCER won't mind the move back to a sprint after a solid effort versus pricier nonwinners of two. He will appreciate the easier company and could pick up suspect speed. AIRAFFAIR has the best speed, drew the rail and could be gone if he breaks alertly with the 10-pound bug aboard at a very light weight. He set an honest pace and tired late in his latest and maybe the reduced load will help him make it the whole way. ANOTHEROUNDBARKEEP may have moved too soon when he stretched out in his latest and could be a threat from off the pace with the move back to a sprint. He closed with good speed to get up for second in his previous race and is certainly capable of winning what appears to be a competitive event. FLAMING SEVEN is another that should be included in all the spots.

RACE TWO:  PRINCESSES RULE is a full-sister to multiple stakes winner Tierra Del Feugo and she showed a lot of potential when she debuted in a maiden special weight race May 28. She broke a bit flat footed and then made a strong move while splitting horses on the second turn. She finished full of run and came up just short. She looked very strong in her four-furlong move last Sunday and with the expected move forward she is going to be tough to beat. QUEEN'S VICAR had a rough trip when she was favored in her latest and looks like the main threat. She was forced to steady when she tried to get through along the rail at the quarter pole and then again when she was making another move mid-stretch. LUISINA looks like the main speed and she held on well to finish second in the same race Queen's Vicar exits. Use her in the exotics.

RACE THREE:  WHAT A SCORE came back with a solid five-furlong move after finishing second in her debut and could take a big step forward in her second start. She is the first foal out of a mare that won sprinting and Terrell is a good win-early sire. Her trainer also does good work with his babies. LASTING ran very greenly in her debut and could do some damage if she learned something from the experience. She broke sharply and was in the thick of it when she shied from horses and ducked out going into the turn. All four of her siblings to race are winners and it shouldn't be long before she joins them. JOINT CHOICE may have tipped his hand with a bullet three-furlong move out of the gate and five of his six siblings to race are winners including 2-year-old debut winner Haunting You.

RACE FOUR:  MOTEL STROLL looked pretty strong in her win over TERLANI June 3 and should be able to stand the small jump in class. In her only other start this year she just missed to P. S. Touch Down who ran a huge race to finish third in the Vancouver Sun last weekend. MOTEL STROLL looks like the controlling speed and should be gone if she breaks on top. She can also stalk if other speed does show up. DAYMAKER finished full of run to just miss behind Dashing Daisy who came back to finish a close second in a $35k optional race last Saturday. She earned a bullet for her sharp half-mile move June 23 and the only concern is they may not be going fast enough early to set up her good late move. TERLANI moves inside where she should be able to get into a striking position without too much effort. She couldn't keep up with the top pick last time, however.

RACE FIVE:  EMBANKMENT finished second in a stakes race the only time she went around three turns and should appreciate the added distance and drop in class. She has had trouble leaving the gate lately but she left there running when she worked a strong 6 1/2 furlongs last Sunday. KYRIA got bogged down on the rail and had to steady going into both turns when favored in a similar race June 18. She finished second at this level two back and could make amends with a clean trip. VYING FOR PLEASURE chased the speed and held on well to finish second in the same race Kyria exits. It was her first route this year and she is eligible to improve with the solid race behind her. BEAUTY AND VICTORY closed strongly to get up for third in the same race and it was just her first try at a middle distance. No surprise if she is the winner of what appears to be a wide-open event.

RACE SIX:  FOXCREEK must have more than his share of problems but if you toss his race in the Grade 3 B.C. Derby he has shown up every time. He ran a huge race coming off the bench to finish second in a quickly run $35K optional race won by a stakes winner and if he can come close to the same kind of performance he will be tough to beat. The drop is obviously a concern but he is in very good hands. RIBOLETTO has run two big races this year and in his latest he just missed to Cherokee Tear who came right back to win for $25k. He is going to have to deal with a faster pace but he doesn't need the lead to win. WOOMBROOM EXPRESS didn't appear to like being taken a hold of going into the first turn in his latest and with the drop in class Fuentes will likely let him roll right from the start. He is clearly the speed of the speed and could be tough to catch if he clears early. BONBONI drops a notch after a solid second behind Cherokee Tear and has to be considered a serious player.

RACE SEVEN:  CASTINETTE DANCER has been very impressive in her three wins sprinting and she is out of a stakes winning mare that won going long plus her only sibling is a route winner. She certainly runs like she'll easily handle a middle distance and with her tactical speed Gutierrez can probably put her wherever he wants. BELLE EVANGELINE beat a pretty weak field in her latest but she did it convincingly and she is the only prove route winner in the field. She also figures to move forward in her second straight race going around three turns. BURNIN' BRITCHES looked like she was gone when she opened up a clear lead in the Emerald Downs but then couldn't hold off the late surge by CASTINETTE DANCER. She has had a couple of solid works since and should be part of any exotics ticket. OVERVALUED will be the one they are chasing and could hang around long enough to be part of the exotics.

RACE EIGHT:  NASCOPIE made a strong late move while going five wide in her first route attempt and there should be an honest enough pace to set her up in her second try at a middle distance. She is a lightly raced 3-year-old facing older horses that have plenty of starts behind them so she could have more upside potential. R DUBAI GIRL is a half-sister to five route winners and could be coming up to a big race following an improved effort in her latest sprint. She failed in her only try at a middle distance but she was facing males so it might be worth giving her another shot at it. COSTA MARTA and MY BLACK PEARL figure to be involved early and one of them should be able to hang around long enough to land in the exotics. Give the edge to COSTA MARTA who finished second at this level in her latest while MY BLACK PEARL is facing winners for the first time.