Race Analysis - Saturday, July 9

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: AMAZING ROSE hasn't been able to keep up to tougher this year but she should appreciate the class relief and she is reunited with Alvarado who was aboard for her win in the CTHS Sales. She has a decent work showing and the past five years MacPherson has an 18 percent strike rate when he drops them by 50 percent or more. FLAMES ABLAZIN might not have cared for the wet conditions in her latest but she won't mind cutting back to the distance of her lone win and there appears to be ample speed to set her up. G ITS LATE has the top Beyer Speed Figure at the distance and appears to be the best speed. She could hang around a long time if she can handle coming back this quickly. The past five years La Vanway, who is having a strong meet, is just 7 percent with horses returning in a week or less, though.

RACE TWO:  GENTLE JOE was an impressive debut winner over a sloppy track and and might be good enough to stand the jump in class if he can reproduce the same kind of figure over a fast surface. The barn has been spotting them realistically all year and the past five years MacPherson has a 24 percent strike rate with horses that are coming off a maiden win. LOOKOUT DUBAI ran an odd race when he made his return in a first-level allowance race for 3-year-olds and up. He showed good speed early, dropped back to last and then made a bit of a late move. The horse that finished third came back to win a $25K claiming race for 3-year-olds and this guy figures to take a big step forward with a race under his belt. MATCHABULL is coming off of a couple of dull efforts at Golden Gate but he ran well here last year and looked pretty sharp in his four-furlong move July 3. Most of his races in California were solid and maybe he just needed a short break.

RACE THREE:  ARKHILL drops to a new low and from the looks of his bullet four-furlong move June 25 everything seems to be in order. He obviously isn't as good as he once was but he looks capable of handling this group and he should be able to stalk what figures to be a lively battle up front. MONSTERINTHECLOSET is heading in the other direction and he looked good coming from off the pace in his win over $7,500 claimers in his last start. Once again he should have something to run at. SWISS ARROGANT and NOW ACT are coming off sharp front-running wins versus easier but it is hard to see either of them getting away on their own. Give the edge to SWISS ARROGANT who posted a career best and race high Beyer Speed Figure of 81 in an impressive performance. Can he repeat that figure under pressure? Probably not.

RACE FOUR:  FUNNY FACE came close to beating older horses two back and he earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure for his win over $25,000 3-year-olds in his latest. He also showed he doesn't need to have the early lead to win. He was claimed out of the race and the past three years Ellickson has a 20 percent strike rate when he runs them back the first time. HERBIE D came back with two solid works following his sharp win in his debut. It is never easy facing winners but he appears to have some talent. He is the first foal out of a mare that went unplaced in three starts so there isn't a lot to mention breeding wise. HAYJAX may have bounced when he came back in the Auburn or they may have been too quick for him. Either way, he has worked well since, runs well fresh and comes out of a very live barn. DOUBLE JACK couldn't have looked worse in his first work here June 26 and then was scratched out of the Chris Loseth July 1. Nonetheless, anything out of this barn deserves respect and if you toss his race on turf he's been pretty reliable on dirt and Polytrack.

RACE FIVE:  INVINCIPLE EAGLE couldn't keep up to Gentle Joe who was an impressive debut winner and makes his second start in the third race. Joe is headed higher and this guy is cutting his price in half while trying a route for the first time. No guarantee he'll get the distance but he has a decent Tomlinson figure and the past five years the barn has a 23 percent strike rate with horses stretching out for the first time. LUCAVA has been right there in both of his three-turn races and figures to get a cozy trip from his inside post. He should also be able to stalk what could be a lively pace. LAGER MAN set a slow pace and held on to finish third in the same race Lucava exits but he has made an impact from a stalking position in the past and could get first crack at speed that may not last. That would be BOURNETOO who has shown good speed sprinting and will be stretching out for the first time.

RACE SIX:  RAINBOWSINTHEWOOD may not have been ready to go this far with just one sprint behind her this year and could take a big step forward in her second straight route. She came back with a solid half-mile move and if she comes close to running as well as she did last summer she'll be tough to beat. She should also have more of a contested pace to work with. SASSY'S TREASURE comes out of the same race and she was bogged down on the rail most of the way with nowhere to go. She finished okay once she moved off the rail and could move forward in her second straight route. KATELLIENA has won seven races at the distance and looked good beating easier in her latest. She has worked smartly since and is capable of handling the jump in class.

RACE SEVEN:  HILLINGDON was just starting to roll but completely lost her momentum and dropped back to last when she had to take up sharply approaching the quarter pole in her debut with males June 19. After gathering herself she rallied strongly while going wide and just missed finishing second to a highly regarded colt. She appears to have a lot of potential and being the first foal out of a multiple stakes winning mare she also has the breeding. CLARESMIEZIE was an impressive winner going 3 1/2 furlongs May 22 and she picked things up in her latest five-furlong move July 3. Barn does a great job with their babies and over the past five years Tracy has a 33 percent strike rate with 2-year-olds running in stakes races. SUNNYSIDE GAL couldn't catch CLARESMIEZIE going 3 1/2 but she is a half-sister to route stakes winners Trick of the North and Remarkable Miss so the added distance could work in her favor.

RACE EIGHT:  MAJESTIC WOMAN ran a much-improved race in her first start as a 4-year-old and could take a big step forward with a race behind here. The barn also has decent recent stats with horses coming back for a second start following a layoff. INSATIABLE LOVE is clearly the one to beat off of her first two starts. Both times she finished second and she improved her Beyer Speed Figure in her second start. She would look a lot better with at least one work showing since she ran, however. LADY SAFFRON, who scratched out of a tougher spot Friday, drops to a new low and she's been a picking up checks in most of her races. She has had her fair chances though, and she was a beaten favorite in her last two. ICE MISS could be the sleeper. She dwelt in her debut but she came back to work a fast three-furlongs out of the gate last Sunday. She had decent works leading up to her debut and she is a half-sister to seven-time winner Bobbiesqueen.