Race Analysis - Thursday, September 1

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: CHANTOOZIE has faced much tougher in all four of her starts and she figures to appreciate the substantially easier company she is facing here. She dropped to this level when she stretched out for the first time in her latest and after showing decent speed she held on reasonably well to finish fourth in a race that produced a couple of next out winners. She's been off for almost two months but she had a decent five-furlong move August 25 and she should handle these if she comes back with a decent effort. WHAT ABOUT JOEY didn't show much in either of her races but she is taking a substantial drop and if she can run at all she should show it here. SONIA'S MANE GIRL will be the one they have to catch and would a lot more attractive if she wasn't a vet scratch on Aug. 19 and 24.

RACE TWO: SASSY CASE just missed when she dropped back to this level after tackling much tougher in the B.C. Cup Endurance. She picks up seven pounds but attracts the leading rider who might be able to get her over the top. WESTERN DELTA finished a nose in front of the top pick despite going very wide around the stretch turn. She could get up in time with the right kind of trip. KACHINA DREAM moves inside where she could be dangerous if she can get involved early in a race where the pace figures to be moderate at best. TICK ME OFF showed more tactical speed in her win over cheaper and at the least should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE THREE: LASTING ran well in all three of her races going 3 1/2 furlongs, adds Lasix and has had a couple of solid works leading up to her first try in a two-turn sprint. All four of her siblings to race are winners and she is a full sister to $75K Lasting Spice who has won going long and short. JOEY LA BAMBA broke poorly and then didn't show much when she tried much tougher in the $100,000 Sadie Diamond Futurity in her first start for her new connections who claimed her for $10K in her previous race. She will appreciate the much-easier company with the substantial drop and considering the strong jockey-trainer stats it is encouraging to see Alvarado take the call. PORCELAIN comes out of a barn that can have them ready first and all seven of her siblings are winners including Cash Land who won his debut as a 2-year-old last year.

RACE FOUR: SUPER STEVE set quick fractions and not surprisingly tired late when he ran in an $8K starter marathon in his latest. He will appreciate the easier company he is facing here and he won't mind the move back to a middle distance. NORTHWAY also went pretty fast during the early stages of his latest and after opening up a clear lead in the stretch he just couldn't quite hang on. Blinkers come off and it wouldn't be surprising to see Cardenas try and ease him into a stalking position. Similar tactics worked when Northway posted his career-best Beyer Speed Figure in his final start of 2010. GREAT PRINCE has been unlucky not to win his last couple at this level and once again should have an honest pace to work with. He should be heard from late and could get up in time of things fall his way.

RACE FIVE: SILVER RULER has flopped as the chalk in three of his last four starts so it wouldn't be a shock to see him get beat again. Nonetheless, he finished a solid second in his latest and he drew the rail where Hamel should be able to let him fall into a perfect spot just behind what figures to be a lively and contested pace. ANOTHEROUNDBARKEEP had a wide trip while forcing the pace in the same race and could make some noise if he can save ground and avoid getting in a duel. THE BARTON BOY looks like the one they will have to catch and he could be full of confidence following his first win. He also gets in with a feather and could take them a long way if he does sneak away on his own. LUCK OF THE DEVIL might have something to say about that, however. DESCENT should appreciate the shape of the race and should be considered for the exotics.

RACE SIX: LATE AFFAIR has won four in a row and she earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure for her win in over open allowance horses including stakes winner Feeling Fancy in her latest at Emerald Downs. She figures to move forward in her second start back and she was a pretty handy winner the last time she ran here in a $25K claiming race. CRY CRY CRY couldn't keep up with stakes horses going a middle distance in the Strawberry Morn but she won the last time she ran for this condition and she looked pretty sharp when she worked a bullet five furlongs in :59.20 seconds August 21. She will appreciate both the easier company and the move back to a sprint. OTERO should have plenty of speed to chase and could get up in time to pick up a slice. Use her in the exotics.

RACE SEVEN: EVERYTHINGS A BLUR worked a sharp three furlongs out of the gate August 25 and could be ready to fire a big shot first time out. Her sire has decent stats with all first time starters, 14 percent, but is just 1 for 15 with 2-year-old first timers. Dam was a stakes winner and this is her second foal. VIRTUAL TIME broke poorly and lost any chance she had when she was sent off as the chalk in her second start. She adds blinkers for this and could make amends with a clean break. All three of her siblings are winners and two of them won as 2-year-olds. WINE THIEF ran an even race when she debuted at this level and distance July 24 and could take a big step forward with a race under her belt. Her trainer also has solid stats in all the relevant categories.